Taiwan elections: increased risk of escalation?
Lai Ching-te of the incumbent pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has won the presidential elections in Taiwan, and is expected to continue the China-critical course of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen. However his party fell short of an absolute majority in parliament and needs the support of the opposition parties, which are calling for a more conciliatory stance towards Beijing. Europe's press takes a look at what Lai's victory portends.
Invasion entirely possible
The fear of a Chinese attack is growing, Jutarnji list observes:
“Beijing is no friend of Lai's policies, especially as he describes himself as a 'worker for Taiwan independence'. This is the main bone of contention, which is why tensions are simmering and there are fears of an open war or Chinese invasion of the island. ... From a Western perspective, Lai's election victory is a continuation of the policy pursued for eight years by his party colleague Tsai Ing-wen. Lai is expected to take an even tougher stance against communist China, causing many analysts to fear an even faster and stronger escalation of tensions.”
Almost closer than Ukraine or Gaza
The West must not underestimate the significance of the Taiwan conflict, Les Echos warns:
“After Ukraine in 2022 and Israel in 2023, no powers have any interest in getting involved in a new conflict this year. They have neither weapons nor money, and Taipei seems a long way away. Yet of the three conflicts, Taiwan is the one that would hit us the hardest. Taiwan produces more than 60 percent of the world's semiconductors and 90 percent of the most powerful ones, those used in our smartphones. It has taken 40 years to build up this system, which no other country will be able to replicate in the medium term. A Chinese invasion or blockade would therefore be a disaster for our companies, our factories and our everyday lives.”
Hope that stiuation will de-escalate for now
Initial reactions from Beijing seem to indicate that no escalation is imminent for the time being, The Irish Times writes with relief:
“Beijing framed Taiwan's election as a choice about war and peace and warned voters there against choosing Lai. But its immediate reaction to the result has been muted, encouraging observers in Taipei to hope that relations with the mainland will be no worse than before. If the Chinese leadership believes its own stated interpretation of Saturday's election outcome, it should cultivate the 60 per cent of voters who voted for candidates open to more dialogue with Beijing. The best way to do this is to respect the democratic choice of the Taiwanese people.”
A country where democracy works
For Público the elections represent a glimmer of hope:
“In countries like Taiwan or the US where democracy is not yet jeopardised in terms of electoral mechanisms, the result is decisive for the survival of a free society. ... Taiwan is a pawn in the game between the great powers, but it is also a country where the people can still decide their fate. In this difficult year of 2024, the Taiwanese vote gives hope to those who believe that democracy is a non-negotiable value. Even if this offends powerful neighbours such as China or Russia.”
China increasingly a red rag
Beijing's attempts at "peaceful reunification" are likely to fall on deaf ears after the election, China correspondent Fabian Kretschmer explains in the Stuttgarter Zeitung:
“It wasn't always like this. Beijing's promise to Taiwan - 'one country, two systems' - gained popularity not so long ago. This was because China was developing into an emerging global power and making Taiwan's economy dependent on its huge market. However, since the autocrat Xi Jinping came to power over ten years ago, the splendour of the People's Republic has become a deterrence. A key moment came in the summer of 2020, when the democracy movement in Hong Kong was crushed. This turned China into a red rag for most Taiwanese.”