Shrinking Eastern Europe

A study conducted by the World Bank predicts that in 20 years' time the average age of the populations of the countries of Eastern Europe will be the highest in the world. The decrease in their birth rates is so dramatic that it threatens to damage their economic development. The authors of the study, Arup Banerji and Gordon Betcherman, conclude that this transformation in Eastern Europe's demographics constitutes a social revolution akin to the fall of communism in 1989: "There are currently 400 million people living in the former socialist countries. By 2025 the proportion of over 65-year-olds will be much higher than today. Over the coming two decades their population will shrink by almost 24 million... They are in a unique position worldwide because these countries have a much worse starting position in the battle against the problems resulting from their aging societies than Western Europe. Other countries that have similarly rapidly aging populations don't have to worry at the same time about developing modern economic and political institutions."

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