No arrest: Putin visits Mongolia

Polityka is not surprised that there was no arrest:

“Given that Mongolia has to constantly perform a balancing act between China and Russia and at the same time fight for its independence, one could hardly expect it to take such a serious step as to have its authorities arrest the Russian leader in Ulaanbaatar. Putin is well aware of this - which is probably why he travelled to Mongolia in the first place. He is once again giving the European and American liberals who cling to the principles of the post-war world order the runaround.”

Ulaanbaatar ties with Moscow are simply too lucrative for it to be willing to jeopardise them, Glavkom explains:

“In general, Mongolia's conduct here is understandable. It follows the same logic as the African countries which are in the process of joining or want to join the Brics states, all of which are very different when it comes to their stage of development and degree of influence. They're all simply seizing the opportunity to milk Russia for cheap or even free resources and money. Even Turkey couldn't resist and has now announced its intention to join the Brics. And Mongolia is a poor country. So faced with the choice between a conflict with Putin and making money out of Russia's problems, it was obvious what it would go for.”

Radio Kommersant FM outlines the most important economic goal of Putin's visit:

“According to the press in China and elsewhere, friendly Mongolia has taken the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which is strategically important for Russia, off its priority national development agenda until 2028. This pipeline would provide a new route for the transport of Russian gas to China. The option of running the pipeline through Mongolia is considered to be the most favourable. The Kremlin apparently intends to convince its partners of the profitability of the project. However, it seems that China, as the main buyer of the fuel, is not showing any enthusiasm for the plan.”

Neatkarīgā points out that despite everything, Russia's influence in Mongolia is limited:

“Even if Russia wants to use such visits to increase its influence, the Kremlin does not have the usual instruments at its disposal here. Mongolia has developed over the last 35 years without Russia's involvement, the population is growing, there's free access to information, English is the most important foreign language. ... Mongolians are either Buddhists, non-believers or follow national shamanic traditions: there are no Orthodox followers of the Moscow Patriarchate to be found here. Nor are there any reports of political parties openly or secretly accepting money from the Kremlin.”

Putin wants to show that he can ignore not only international law but also international justice, journalist Vitaly Portnykov writes in Radio Svoboda:

“What will happen if Putin visits a country that has signed the Rome Statute and returns home safely? That would set a dangerous precedent, especially for the countries of the Global South: Putin travelled to Mongolia, nobody arrested him there and everything went well. Perhaps we should invite him too? The authority of the International Criminal Court will be significantly weakened as a result. That is exactly what Putin is trying to achieve with this visit to Mongolia.”

Putin underestimates the democratic forces in Mongolia, writes Russian sociologist Igor Eidman in a Telegram post republished by Obozrevatel:

“Unfortunately Putin is unlikely to be arrested in Mongolia. But embarrassing incidents for him (such as the issuing of an arrest warrant by a Mongolian court, actions taken by the Ministry of Justice in this direction or similar demands by the public) cannot be ruled out. Even such an outcome of the visit would be a real humiliation and a blow to Putin's reputation among the Russian leadership. If the dictator is even humiliated in always 'friendly' Mongolia, it would prove that he can no longer represent Russia on the international stage.”