Ceasefire proposal: how will Moscow react?
At the talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah, negotiators from Washington and Kyiv have agreed on a joint proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the Ukraine war. They also agreed that the suspended US military aid will be resumed. Commentators focus on how Russia will react.
Key questions left open
It remains unclear how Ukraine's security is to be guaranteed, notes Lidové noviny:
“In all likelihood, without major territorial concessions Russia will not accept a ceasefire - or this ceasefire won't last long. At the same time, the problem is that Ukraine needs guarantees that the Russia leadership will not attack it again, but the Americans are refusing to give such guarantees. The only option that remains is some kind of European guarantee or the possibility of arming Ukraine so that it is just as strong as Russia. ... The question is whether the Americans will want to invest in something like that.”
Forcing Putin's hand
Political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko describes the Kremlin's tricky situation on Facebook:
“Putin now faces with a dilemma: Ukraine or Trump? Only yesterday he was probably hoping to get both - to persuade Ukraine to capitulate with the help of Trump, to gradually regain control of Ukraine and at the same time to reach an agreement with Trump on various tactical and possibly also strategic issues. Now he has to make a decision. ... If he still wants a tactical-strategic alliance with Trump in order to strengthen his geopolitical position and reduce his dependence on China, then he has to agree to the ceasefire and give up his intention of forcing Ukraine to capitulate.”
Diplomatic success for the Ukrainian delegation
Political scientist Alyona Getmanchuk summarises on Facebook:
“In my view, Ukraine had two interconnected key tasks in Saudi Arabia: first, to demonstrate as convincingly as possible that it is not Ukraine that is blocking peace, but Russia. ... Secondly, to throw the diplomatic ball to the Russian side of the field, by presenting our own proposals, a proactive vision and a willingness on our part to agree to a ceasefire. The initial information and statements from Jeddah and the reports on the resumption of military assistance and the exchange of intelligence show that the Ukrainian delegation has successfully completed these two tasks.”
Unacceptable in its current form
A statement from the state-run news agency Ria Novosti indicates how the leadership in Moscow sees the situation:
“How we return the diplomatic ball will determine Russia's skill in this particular diplomatic discipline. We must be clever and hit it back to Ukraine in such a way that Zelensky again becomes an obstacle to Trump's Nobel Prize. There can be no question of Russia accepting the offer from Jeddah in its current form. The West and Ukraine are calling in unison for a halt to hostilities. But they've been singing the same tune since February 2022, and no one has the right to act as if they haven't heard that Russia has its own terms: the elimination of the reasons for the start of the 'special military operation' [the term prescribed by the Kremlin to designate the war against Ukraine].”
Poker with many wild cards
Two opposing plans for the reorganisation of the global order are pitched against each other, La Repubblica comments:
“Putin's extreme reserve and Trump's blatant openness mark the unbalanced start of a poker game with unpredictable consequences between the two leaders, precisely because their respective goals are so different. Putin wants to assert Russia's sovereignty over Ukraine to resume the project of creating a sphere of influence along national lines. ... Trump wants to detach Putin from Beijing and make the deal on Ukraine the driving force behind a new international order. ... Putin and Trump embody two ambitious projects for the reorganisation of international security which at the moment seem entirely incompatible.”
Insults are part of the game for Trump
The BBC looks back at the clash between Trump and Zelensky just a few days before the new show of unity and notes:
“That US and Ukrainian diplomats were able to improve relations and chart a path forward serves as another illustration of how Trump, despite his apparent bluster and willingness to hurl insults, always appears open to further negotiations. For him, in fact, the swagger and browbeating are often an integral part of the negotiating process.”