Kursk offensive: upping the pressure on the Kremlin?
Ukraine claims to have advanced over 30 kilometres into the Russian Kursk region and destroyed or damaged three important bridges. According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, the goal of the offensive is to increase the pressure on Russia and to create a buffer zone. Europe's media ask whether the strategy is working.
No end to the war in sight
For Helsingin Sanomat a Russian counterattack is only a matter of time:
“The surprise effect of the Ukrainian attack on Russian territory in Kursk a few weeks ago is beginning to fade. However Ukraine is continuing its advance on Russian territory, as well as other surprises. On Tuesday night it attacked Moscow with drones, reminding the population that they are not just bystanders in the war. ... The political stakes are rising in both Kiev and the Kremlin. ... The slow pace of the Kursk offensive gives the Kremlin the opportunity to muster its strength for a counterattack. For the Ukrainians the success in Kursk has brought rare moments of hope, but an end to the war is not in sight.”
Tolerance and obedience
Russian citizens are apathetic, Telegram explains:
“Ukraine's advance into the Kursk region has once again confirmed the great weakness of Russian society, which is completely apolitical. The occupation of parts of 'Mother Russia', the evacuation of the civilian population and the pictures of beardless young prisoners have not attracted any particular attention from the wider Russian public. There have been no expressions of indignation by Russians towards the 'occupying' Ukrainian forces. ... Russian citizens do not feel like participants in political processes, but obediently listen to the explanations dished out by the state media.”
Sooner or later there will be a reaction
De Standaard wonders whether this is just the calm before the storm:
“It's naive to think that Russia will simply let the Ukrainian troops around Kursk carry on as before. As at the beginning of the war, when the Ukrainians put up more resistance than Putin had thought, now too the Russian president may well need time to recover from the surprise attack, reorganise his troops and change strategy. But there seems little doubt that that he will do so. The question then will be: What has Ukraine gained from the bold attack?”
Putin potentially facing awkward questions
The events in Kursk may also exacerbate Putin's domestic political problems, Público points out:
“The biggest concern will be how the families of soldiers who are doing their compulsory military service for a year react. Putin has always guaranteed - even if he has not always honoured it - that these young men will not be involved in the invasion of Ukraine. However, many of the soldiers serving in the Kursk region are young conscripts, and the invasion raises doubts about the troops that the Kremlin will need to mobilise.”
Mobilisation would be catastrophic
24tv.ua explains why Moscow has not yet resorted to forced mobilisation despite a shortage of soldiers:
“Putin understands only too well the difference between a soldier who kills Ukrainians voluntarily and for pay and has factored in the risk of dying and someone who is being forced to fight. A soldier who is forced into war will surrender at the first opportunity. A prime example of this in the last few days is the Russian conscripts from the Kursk region. After a week of fighting almost 2,000 have already been taken prisoner! Imagine a forced mobilisation of 300,000 Russians. If ten percent of them were to surrender, what an exchange fund that would be, and what a disaster for the regime!”
Change is in the air
For Spotmedia, the lack of reaction from the Kremlin speaks volumes:
“Reports by Ukrainian and Western journalists inside Russia, Kyiv's armoured vehicles rolling unhindered across the border, and residents who feel more protected by the occupying forces than by the Kremlin military paint a picture that was hard to imagine two and a half years ago. ... Russia's obvious weakness is already having an impact on the political regime in Moscow, and the waves that Belarusian President Lukashenka is now making show that the situation is coming to a head. It's impossible to predict when a major shift will take place in Russia, but it's in the air and could happen at any moment.”
An attack on our country - so what?
Exiled politician Leonid Gozman marvels in Novaya Gazeta Europe at the indifference with which Russians seem to be reacting to the situation:
“Have you seen any posts saying 'Willing to take in a family from the Kursk region for free'? And where's the flood of volunteers eager to defend their homeland? The only indication that their number has increased has come from Putin - a reliable source indeed. The television stations haven't been able to show a single queue at an enlistment centre with someone saying that although they had thought that the country could manage without them, now they're off to the front. If you don't have at least that, you don't have a country. The authorities may have their own reasons for not declaring a 'holy war' over Kursk. But the main point is that people don't feel anything about it at all.”