Why is Minsk moving troops to the Ukrainian border?
On the pretext that Ukraine has stationed up to 120,000 troops on the border to his country Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenka has now deployed his military in the Gomel region, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has reported. Kyiv has warned Minsk not to make a tragic mistake and succumb to pressure from Moscow, demanding that the Belarusian troops be pulled back beyond the firing range of their missiles.
Create the impression of a threat
Lukashenka's plans are clear as day, journalist Vitaly Portnikov writes in Espreso:
“His task is to distract Ukrainian troops and make the situation worse for Ukraine in the Donetsk region, and above all in the region of Kursk in Russia. It is known that Vladimir Putin has ordered his generals to expel the Ukrainian troops from the region by October 1. This will not only make huge demands on the Russian army, it will also reduce the numbers of Ukrainian troops in Kursk. And Lukashenka now has to create a convincing impression of threat in the north of our country, to force the Ukrainian military leaders to transfer considerable reserves there.”
A signal to his own people
The taz sees no immediate danger:
“It's more likely that this is just another facet of the information war between the warring parties. That applies above all to the Belarusian side - that is, to the autocratic permanent fixture Alexander Lukashenka, who indulges in utterly absurd conspiracy fantasies. One of these is that Belarus could be attacked by the Nato states - or by Ukraine. ... With the supposed build-up of military personnel at the border, Lukashenka can once again present himself to his people (a large majority of whom oppose the war) as the 'leader' who is protecting his country and doing everything he can to prevent Belarus from becoming involved. But Minsk has long been in the thick of it.”
Dithering and prevaricating
For Lukashenka active involvement in the war would entail a huge risk, Rzeczpospolita points out:
“The dictator is dithering and prevaricating on the issue of active participation in the war. He's afraid that by sending troops to Kyiv he will be signing his own death warrant. So the chances of some kind of Belarusian blitzkrieg are slim. The completely inexperienced Belarusians would be facing Ukrainian veterans armed with Western weapons. Would the support of Putin's army, which is tied up on other sections of the front, be enough? That remains to be seen.”
Lithuania remains under threat
Lukashenka's actions are controlled by the Kremlin, journalist Audrius Rusteika points out in Alfa:
“With Russia as it is now, we will never live in complete peace. Let's recall the hybrid attack in which illegal migrants were artificially pushed from Belarus into Lithuania. This was definitely not just a ploy by Belarus. There there is no doubt that Russia was behind this Belarusian stunt, which caused a major crisis in our country. Similar attacks could definitely await us.”