Lithuainia: vote for a change of government
The Social Democratic Party has won the second round of voting in the Lithuanian parliamentary elections, claiming 52 seats in the Seimas, well ahead of the incumbent ruling party TS-LKD (conservative, 28 seats). The Social Democrats now plan to form a three-way coalition with Vardan Lietuvos (centre-left/green) and a yet-to-be-determined third partner. The nationalist-populist Nemuno aušra came in third. How did this result come about and what will happen next?
A vote against the current government
Verslo žinios sums up:
“The distribution of votes paints a clear picture: the Social Democrats will occupy a leading position in the formation of the governing coalition. ... However, political analysts say that many people voted not for but against something – namely the Conservatives. ... Meanwhile, the intrigue over the post of prime minister continues. The leader of the Social Democrats [MEP Vilija Blinkevičiūtė] is still playing hide and seek and suggesting that we wait and see. But the more time passes, the clearer it becomes that the first lady is avoiding this post - we can expect her to make a quiet retreat to Brussels.”
A typically Lithuanian election
Political scientist Ramūnas Vilpišauskas lists the main takeaways of the election in 15min:
“Firstly, the new ruling coalition could consist of three parties and be able to remain stable throughout the entire legislative period. Secondly, the fragmentation in the Seimas has not increased – on the contrary, the number of factions could actually go down from eight to seven. Thirdly, once again a centrist party is being replaced by another centrist party at the head of the ruling coalition. ... Fourthly, another recurring phenomenon in Lithuanian politics - the rise of new parties - has this time brought the [nationalist] party Nemuno aušra into the Seimas. But it may well disappear again after the next parliamentary elections (and before that members of its faction will defect to other parties).”
Less support for Kyiv?
Ukrainska Pravda looks at how a change of government could affect Ukraine:
“There should be no expectations that any Lithuanian government will make significant adjustments to its foreign policy. ... Particularly since foreign policy in Lithuania is traditionally considered the responsibility of the president, not the government. At the same time, the Social Democrats owe their victory mainly to the fact that they accused the current government of being too involved in international politics – to the detriment of its own citizens. This carries the risk that the new Lithuanian government will not assume a leading role in supporting Kyiv and punishing Russia, as the conservatives have done.”
No sign of pro-Kremlin tendencies
Neatkarīgā also sees the results in the light of Lithuania's future stance vis-à-vis Russia:
“As Lithuania's neighbour, Latvia is mainly interested in what course the new Lithuanian government will take in foreign policy. We can be reassured in that respect. In Lithuania, as in Poland, there are no serious, politically significant forces that are in any way pro-Russian. This won't prevent the losers of the elections from branding the winners as pro-Kremlin and anti-state, but that's just part of the political game. It's entirely possible that the new foreign minister, whoever he or she may be, won't be able to outdo [the incumbent minister] Landsbergis in terms of anti-Putin rhetoric, but essentially nothing is likely to change.”