Brexit: no deal, postponement or referendum?
After the House of Commons rejected Theresa May's deal a third time on Friday the prospect of the UK making a disorderly departure from the EU on 12 April is looming. Other possibilities are a further postponement of Brexit, a second referendum or another vote on May's deal. Commentators discuss which scenario is more likely.
Further delay won't do any good
Theresa May's strategy has come to nothing, writes 24 Chasa:
“May can postpone Brexit until 22 May, or even secure an 18-month transition phase, but that will weaken her position vis-à-vis the EU in the long term. The leaders of the EU states have repeatedly made it clear that they won't make any more compromises. So if they do make compromises now to avoid Brexit chaos on 12 April, they will certainly demand compensation in the next round of negotiations, because Brexit is a test not just for the UK but also for the future of the EU.”
EU could bid Britain farewell without a deal
Another longer postponement of Brexit is by no means a sure outcome, the Financial Times argues:
“The council will also consider the consequences of Mrs May's potential resignation. Imagine the idea of prime minister Boris Johnson from a European perspective. He would become a full voting member in the council. On April 10, the leaders would have the unique opportunity to stop this. Hard to deny the temptation. … If the UK were to leave, 27 of its 73 seats in the European Parliament would be distributed. The two biggest net gainers would be France and Spain with five additional seats each. Unsurprisingly, both countries are among those most sceptical about a long extension.”
There is no good Brexit
The United Kingdom is heading for the worst of all Brexit scenarios, Newsweek Polska fears:
“According to the latest surveys support for remaining in the EU is higher than for leaving but still doesn't exceed 50 percent. The result of a referendum therefore remains unclear. Right now it seems that the most likely scenario is Brexit on April 12 without an agreement. Paradoxically, hardly anyone except the Brexit extremists wants this solution. It is the worst of all possibilities. But the problem is that no date and no agreement that would regulate the terms is good enough for the MPs. Nor can it be, because Brexit itself is a bad idea. The chaos it has caused is the best proof of that.”