Sweden: all set to join Nato?
Turkish President Erdoğan had blocked Sweden's Nato accession for months, but now he has signed the corresponding protocol and submitted it to the Turkish parliament for ratification. Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wants Sweden to officially join the defence alliance at the meeting of Nato foreign ministers taking place at the end of November. Commentators discuss the background and still see obstacles ahead.
Now the members of parliament have the floor
The pro-government Daily Sabah reminds readers that the bill has not yet been approved by parliament:
“Whether the Turkish parliament will immediately deal with Sweden's accession protocol remains unclear. Notwithstanding, President Erdoğan initiating the parliamentary process represents a new development. Let us recall that Turkey reiterated its support for Nato's expansion by approving Finland's accession protocol last year. This time, the Parliament will review whether Sweden has taken all necessary steps to combat terrorism and make its decision.”
Erdoğan's calculation has paid off
In retrospect, the pro-Kremlin Izvestia sees the Turkish blockade as a domestic and foreign policy strategy:
“From the very beginning, this Turkish 'mutiny' looked like a temporary measure aimed on the one hand at mobilising anti-Western voters in the country ahead of the presidential elections, and on the other at strengthening Turkey's position in relations with Brussels and Washington. Erdoğan has succeeded on both counts - a secure election victory and a decrease in criticism from his European and American partners. .... Ankara is now voluntarily giving up the role of troublemaker in Nato, but expects special treatment. This includes its positioning in the Middle East crisis.”
Finland and the Baltic states will benefit
Sweden's Nato membership is enormously important for the defence of the Nordic countries, Kaleva stresses:
“Sweden's final accession to Nato would be a great thing for Finland and the entire Nordic region, as well as for the Baltic states, which would then have a more robust defence. Sweden would be fully involved in Nato's defence planning. It would bring its own strengths to the table to ensure the stability of the northern regions and the Baltic Sea area. There would be no more gaps in Western defence cooperation in the Nordic region. Although Sweden has greatly reduced its defence capabilities in recent years, it still has a powerful defence industry. This is now available to the entire military alliance.”
Not yet done and dusted
Dagens Nyheter sees problems ahead, both in the Nato accession process and for the functioning of Nato itself:
“Until the papers are ratified and sent to the Nato chief, it makes no difference what Erdoğan does with them. ... In the event [that Trump is elected US president] there is a danger that European security will be shaken to the core. Support for Ukraine is stagnating. ... We know from his last presidency that Trump does not regard Nato as sacred. That we will one day join the defence pact is beyond doubt. ... Hopefully our membership will be finalised in November, or at the latest before the end of the year.”
Nothing more to gain for Erdoğan
Turkey has nothing to gain from continuing to block Sweden's path, says Turun Sanomat:
“Erdoğan's announcement came at an unexpected moment. There are several possible reasons why the process is now moving forward. The purchase of fighter jets from the US may have reached the point where Turkey wants to remove all remaining obstacles. There are also suspicions that Turkey wants to mediate in the Gaza war, and Erdoğan is now showing the West that he is a reliable partner. ... The simple explanation is that you can't keep squeezing for concessions indefinitely. Turkey has already extracted everything it could from the Swedish Nato process and there is no point in blocking it any longer.”
Article 5 not a magic bullet
There must be bilateral agreements in addition to Nato security guarantees, says Helsingin Sanomat:
“While the security guarantees of Nato Article 5 must no be underestimated, other security solutions must also be found. Bilateral relations with the United States are gaining importance. In the coming days, Sweden will conclude negotiations on a bilateral defence cooperation agreement with the United States. Finland is also in the final stages of negotiations to agree on rules for a US military presence in the Nordic countries. The northern European countries have different security interests than the other Nato countries.”
Awkward for Hungary
The Fidesz majority in the Hungarian parliament on Tuesday rejected an opposition motion to put Sweden's Nato accession on the agenda. Hungary is bringing up the rear, Hvg fears:
“After President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan unexpectedly initiated the vote on the issue in the parliament in Ankara on Monday, it is possible that Hungary will now be the last Nato member state to give the Swedes the green light. ... Hungary will certainly have an awkward time explaining this. Before this latest development, sources close to the government had told hvg that Orbán was in no hurry to make a decision because it would improve neither the country's standing within Nato nor its relations with the US.”