Protests in Turkey: what comes next?
The mass rallies against Ekrem İmamoğlu's imprisonment and dismissal as mayor of Istanbul continued on Monday. More than 1,000 demonstrators have been arrested so far. On Sunday, the opposition CHP named İmamoğlu, Erdoğan's main political rival, as its candidate for the 2028 presidential election.
A huge shock wave
El Mundo stresses Istanbul's importance in the political matrix:
“Although the elections are still three years away, Turkey's political chessboard was turned upside down by the arrest of the city's mayor. Istanbul is demographically and economically vital to the country (generating 30 percent of GDP) and is a springboard in the presidential race. This explains the dimensions of what is now the biggest street revolt in a decade. The shock wave has hit the economy hard, driving the Turkish lira to a record low and triggering a wave of sales on the financial market.”
Erdoğan knows the autocrat's tricks
The masses are having a hard time of things, Der Standard explains:
“Erdoğan knows the recipe for gaining control over the press, the judiciary, the police and the army, and then using all of them to stay in power for ever. ... In the end, it's not the number of demonstrators but the loyalty of the ruler's closest allies and above all of the army that decides whether the dictator or the masses win out. Most rulers have learned this and ensure that their own ranks remain closed. External intervention, for example by the EU, rarely achieves anything, and can even be harmful if it encourages the propaganda that the opposition is controlled by foreign powers.”
Turning İmamoğlu into a national hero
Erdoğan has scored an own goal with the arrest, news.bg believes:
“Erdoğan probably thought that his position of power was stable enough to ward off any discontent that his risky action would provoke. ... It's hard to imagine that İmamoğlu's arrest won't have a positive impact on his support ratings, as it did with Erdoğan, who went to prison as mayor of Istanbul in 1999 and came out a national hero. ... As long as İmamoğlu is not convicted in the last instance he can run for president from his prison cell.”
The protests are working
The protest movement will only have a chance when public servants start to doubt Erdoğan, says the Süddeutsche Zeitung:
“Erdoğan's media and propagandists on social media know this and are going to great lengths to substantiate the alleged corruption in Istanbul city hall with ever new accusations. They are determined to make it appear as if these are legitimate legal proceedings. ... If the people on the streets persevere and even Erdoğan supporters start to doubt whether his power is still based on law and order, they will realise that Erdoğan is no longer the state he claims to be. Then things will get dangerous for him. If not in the next few days, then in the period that is beginning now. People believing this is the first thing the protests have achieved.”
Supporting Turkey means supporting the opposition
La Croix knows how Europe must respond:
“Erdoğan is making a show of his desire to de-Westernise Turkey. ... He believes that his country should rely only on its own history, its own culture and its own interests. ... For the states of Europe, the Turkish dilemma is growing ever larger. This powerful neighbour is moving further and further away politically, while at the same time remaining a Nato member and a key trading partner that relies on a highly-organised diaspora. One of the priorities is therefore to support members of the opposition who are close to our principles and values. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is undoubtedly a formidable politician. But he will not remain in power forever.”
So much for freedom of speech
Polityka is concerned about the way Elon Musk's X, which remains very popular in Turkey, is cooperating with the state authorities:
“Every time the courts try to force X to delete accounts that incite violence but are linked to right-wing movements, Elon Musk categorically refuses and invokes the freedom of speech. ... But when the conservative Erdoğan attacks the opposition, Musk doesn't hesitate for long, deletes the accounts and hands over the user data to the authorities. Turkey is a litmus test for how the platform works in non-democratic countries.”
A strategically opportune moment
The Turkish president has seen an opportunity to get rid of yet another opponent, Český rozhlas comments:
“His long-standing exiled adversary Fetullah Gülen is dead and another opponent, Abdullah Öcalan, who's serving a life sentence, has called on the Kurdish PKK to lay down its arms. The eyes of the world are elsewhere and Turkey is trying to make the most of the regime change in Syria and perhaps elsewhere in the wider region. That said, it's also possible that parts of Turkish society will not let Erdoğan's latest attempt to outsmart democracy pass.”
Erdoğan needn't fear pressure from the West
Any criticism from Europe will probably fall on deaf ears with the Turkish president, writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
“Erdoğan knows that he is an indispensable partner for the Europeans, in migration policy, in Syria and in the Ukraine war. So he needn't fear being put under serious pressure by them. The criticism from the German government and other European states will leave him cold. All the more so as Washington has let it be known that it will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. Consequently, Erdoğan can feel encouraged by Donald Trump.”
Europe must defend the rule of law and democracy
De Volkskrant rejects the idea that Turkey's military strength means that the EU has to rely on Erdoğan:
“The EU not only needs to strengthen its defence, it must also be clear about what it is defending: democracy, pluralism and the rule of law. Democracy is already being eroded from within by Hungary, Slovakia and radical and far-right parties that are growing stronger and stronger in many member states. European democrats are becoming increasingly isolated in a world where autocracy is on the rise. The EU must therefore fight to defend democracy and the rule of law in its own part of the world. That means keeping a man like Erdoğan at arm's length.”
An unstable ally
Political scientist Ronald Meinardus comments on To Vima:
“The signs indicate that the controversial deepening of relations between Turkey and the EU is not yet a foregone conclusion. ... To be accepted as an ally in a new European security architecture, Turkey must first abandon its ambivalent attitude towards Moscow and explicitly oppose the aggressor Putin with words and deeds. Erdoğan's authoritarianism makes this rapprochement with Europe even more difficult. The arrest of his greatest domestic rival may not provoke any major protests in the White House, but Erdogan's authoritarianism remains an important issue for Europe, which is largely characterised by liberal democratic values.”
In Putin's footsteps
Turkey increasingly resembles an authoritarian state, Večernji list explains:
“With the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the open repression of the opposition, Turkey looks more and more like Vladimir Putin's Russia and Belarus under Alexander Lukashenka. Like them, Erdoğan leaves nothing to chance; he doesn't defeat his opponents in elections but eliminates them with court proceedings and prison sentences. Opposition leaders not only lose political influence, but also become the victims of staged court cases and their supporters of brutal police violence. Like Putin, Erdoğan uses the judiciary as a tool against political rivals. ... Turkey is increasingly moving away from democracy and closer to the model of rule of Russia and Belarus.”
A bad role model for the world
The events in Turkey could set a precedent, fears Népszava:
“The question is whether the Turks, who trust in the restoration of democracy, are strong enough to resist, or whether the current protests will end up like the 2013 demonstrations in Gezi Park, which were ultimately broken up by the police. ... The current events in Turkey are a warning to the whole world: after Budapest and Ankara, political leaders in more and more countries could become even more authoritarian now that they no longer need fear Washington. It is to be feared that Erdoğan may also give Viktor Orbán tips on what tricks he can use against his biggest political rival, Péter Magyar.”