State elections: how is Germany changing?
The European press is closely following developments ahead of Sunday's state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. Commentators are seeking explanations for the high poll ratings of the AfD, which is classified as a suspected right-wing extremist party by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). There is also advice on hand for what will likely be complicated coalition negotiations after the votes are counted.
The frustrated get their turn
Mladá fronta dnes describes the conditions on the verge of elections:
“Former East Germans are frustrated. They have had enough of those typical remarks about how they have inherited Honecker's old East, a land to which the 'advanced' West Germany had to contribute mightily. They feel as if they are being treated as minors. ... And voters in Thuringia and Saxony have the impression that the situation is going downhill similarly throughout Germany. So politics in those states is polarised and fragmented; citizens are open to anyone who even comments on the problems, including politicians from the AfD or Sahra Wagenknecht's alliance.”
The left is just as xenophobic as the right
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has similar slogans to those of the AfD, notes The Economist:
“Beyond wanting to soak the rich, it is Ms Wagenknecht's overt animosity to migrants that stands out. Her claim there is 'no more room' to take in refugees is the kind of rhetoric that has helped propel the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) to the top of the polls. A stabbing spree by a Syrian asylum-seeker that left three dead on 24 August would once have delivered a windfall to the hard right. This time it is likely to help Ms Wagenknecht's lot just as much.”
Authoritarian anti-authoritarianism
Göteborgs-Posten is worried:
“Germany's special history makes it hard for the country's political parties to deal with right-wing populist discontent. The AfD's radicalisation is linked to the party's conflict with the rest of society. Instead of promoting pragmatism, German political culture favours an intellectualism with radical leanings. Some mainstream voices in Germany are seriously discussing banning the party. In short, Germany is outright authoritarian in its anti-authoritarianism. On a superficial level, the country may well have grappled with the content of its past, but it doesn't go deeper. So there is good reason to keep an eye on developments in the country to our south.”
Objections to Ukraine policy
Birgün emphasises that, rather unusually for state elections, foreign policy is also playing an key role:
“[Above all,] military and economic aid to Ukraine, the economic embargo against Russia and the decision to station long-range missiles with nuclear capability in Germany are among the key issues in the election campaign. The AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which oppose the German government's stance, have consequently gained popularity. Voters in these regions traditionally sympathise more with Russia, or are at least concerned about Germany's hostility towards Russia. For the AfD, which generally represents a ‘militaristic’ ideology, the anti-war stance is an election tactic in this case.”
Learning from Sweden
Given Sweden's experience of January 2019, Expressen warns against building fragile political coalitions that are driven almost solely by the desire to exclude right-wing parties:
“The formation of governments in Dresden and Erfurt is likely to be just as tricky as in Paris. Actually, there is a lesson to be learned from Stockholm: Sweden - a Germany for grown-ups. When Sweden was still fixated on the idea that the Sweden Democrats party was carrying the bubonic plague, we got the January 2019 agreement. Costly and passive politics with no common direction. ... In politics, the most important task is to bring about meaningful changes that give citizens a better future, even if that requires negotiating on the substance of issues with parties you don't like.”
Say no to simple answers
El País warns against shallow slogans in the discourse on immigration:
“The discourse on immigration has hardened across the political spectrum. Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic chancellor, has promised to speed up deportations. ... Scholz should not be responding to the inevitable sense of insecurity that follows gruesome crimes by peddling headlines, he should instead explain the flaws in the system and propose solutions. Immigration is a complex phenomenon that needs to be managed. Oversimplifying the situation just invites simplistic answers.”
Still more problems for Europe
Dagens Nyheter worries:
“We often wonder what repercussions it could have for us if Donald Trump is once again elected president. But closer to home, what do the successes of the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) mean? They're perhaps an even bigger problem for Europe. ... History teaches us that modern Germany is a mature and decent country. But we don't even dare to ask ourselves what could happen if the AfD one day came into the upper echelons of power. Perhaps we should, because as history has taught us, when something goes awry in Germany, all of Europe feels the consequences.”
Other parties have disappointed
Lidové noviny attempts to explain AfD voters and their motivations:
“Many East Germans have already voted for a range of different political parties: for the Christian Democrats or Social Democrats with the prospect of economic prosperity while preserving social welfare. Others voted for the Liberals to reduce bureaucracy and cut taxes. Even the Greens were held in high esteem as the only party that would stop environmental destruction. But whomever they voted for, the outcome was only disillusionment with a system they felt was not responding to their demands. Now many of them have decided to try a party that promises to break up the current political establishment, although it remains unclear what it would be replaced by.”
No surprise
There are reasons for the rise of the AfD in the East, emphasises Phileleftheros:
“35 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the differences between the former German states are still palpable. However, the fact that on the former eastern side, uncertainty sets the tone in politics, the economy and society plays the most important role. Higher unemployment, job losses and a faltering economy have paved the way for the far-right party, which is capitalising on voters' concerns about the future. ... In the eastern states, frustration with parties and politicians runs deep. The AfD has quickly 'embraced' those who are angry with the state, the politicians and the system. Its electoral success will come as no surprise to anyone.”
A portentious shift to the right
In Germany, even attitudes to people of Turkish origin could change, Karar believes:
“The knife attack in Solingen is likely to strengthen anti-immigration parties, especially the AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). ... It is likely that Germany will move further to the right. The established parties will increasingly adopt the demands of right-wing movements. ... It can be assumed that Germany's attitude towards immigration and even multiculturalism will soon change. Turkey should prepare itself for stricter visa policies and 'incentives' for people of Turkish origin to return.”
BSW could be unavoidable
CDU and SPD may come to depend on the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), the Guardian predicts:
“After the regional elections on 1 September, talks will take place designed to cobble together coalitions to govern in Thuringia and Saxony – and to keep out the AfD. The firewall still exists for that party. The irony - and the hypocrisy - is that the remaining parties will be forced to do a deal with Wagenknecht, an equally dangerous but smarter representative of the new far right. The CDU and SPD (if it gets over the threshold) will hold their noses, but they may have no option but to cut a deal with her.”
Wind in the sails of the extremes
Právo looks at the role played by the knife attack in North Rhine-Westfalia:
“Even though the political map had already been drawn up, Solingen will put more wind in the sails of the protest parties AfD and BSW at the weekend. And we can expect to see the full impact of such events in the parliamentary elections next autumn. If the traffic light coalition does not manage to instate a visible shift in migration policy, the wave of protest from the East could ultimately spill over into the Bundestag. Every further Solingen helps the political extremes on the march to government, a march that will begin this Sunday in Erfurt, Thuringia. ”
End in sight for coalition in Berlin
Radio Kommersant FM sees Germany on the brink of political upheaval:
“The parties of the ruling coalitionare in danger of falling short of the five-percent hurdle that gives them a seat in the state parliaments. ... This will create a paradoxical situation. In order for a federal state not to be left completely without a government, the Christian Democrats will have to enter a coalition with one of the anti-system parties - either with devotees of Sahra Wagenknecht or, in breach of every taboo, with the AfD. All in all, Germany stands before a dramatic and unpredictable new political season, which will come to a head with the federal elections in September 2025. It would be a miracle if the current coalition were to stay in power.”