After Nasrallah's death: further escalation in the Middle East?
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday in an Israeli airstrike on the militia's headquarters in a Beirut suburb. Nasrallah was secretary general of Hezbollah for more than three decades and one of the key figures in the pro-Iranian 'Axis of Resistance'. Commentators discuss the next steps of the conflicting parties.
A job well done
Novinky.cz congratulates Netanyahu:
“It's a good thing Israel didn't let itself be dissuaded from continuing its attacks and ignored the words of many Western leaders, including former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell. This time Benjamin Netanyahu was right to reject calls by the US and France for a three-week ceasefire and de-escalation. ... Hezbollah has said it will continue to fight Israel, but the movement and its militias have been weakened, their senior commanders are dead and many weapons and much ammunition, including advanced missiles, have been destroyed.”
Too early for a ceasefire
Israel has improved its strategic position, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung concludes:
“The pager explosions have incapacitated many Hezbollah fighters and disrupted their communications. Key commanders are dead and their rocket arsenal has been massively reduced. The fact that Israel managed to carry out such an operation within just a few days is a testament to careful planning, but also to Hezbollah's overconfidence. ... The West should also remember that Tehran would be the main beneficiary of a quick ceasefire. Hezbollah would not be weakened any further and would remain an Iranian instrument of power on Israel's northern border. In the medium term, Israel would face the same threat in the north as it did before 7 October.”
Fears of a conflatration
The spiral of violence will continue, political scientist José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes predicts in Público:
“What we do know is that Israel's attacks and the casualties inflicted on Hezbollah are pressuring it to restore its military credibility and power of deterrence. Hezbollah still has significant military capabilities that can target all of Israel's territory. ... However, Hezbollah is torn between its own interests in Lebanon and the wider interests of Iran, on which it depends. In any case, the intensity of the military confrontation and its geographic scope have increased dramatically, raising fears of a full-scale war.”
Tehran at a strategic dead end
Writing in Le Monde, Iran experts Mohammad-Reza Djalili and Clément Therme assess the consequences of Nasrallah's death for Iran:
“The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a strategic impasse between the desire for revenge and the need to ensure the survival of its system. Whatever Iran's reaction to the death of Hassan Nasrallah may be, Hezbollah, the flagship of Tehran's network of influence, will ultimately be severely and lastingly weakened by his death. ... The official rhetoric that presents Nasrallah as a 'martyr' risks colliding with a new reality: the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic's ideological-political project in the Middle East.”
A blessing and a curse
Netanyahu is dividing the Middle East into different camps, Corriere del Ticino observes:
“Nasrallah's death has even sparked celebrations among Sunnis. Meanwhile, the Abraham Accords between some Arab countries and Israel continue to hold despite all that has happened this year. In his speech to the semi-deserted UN General Assembly, Netanyahu put Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the camp of the good, of peace and prosperity. ... These countries he described as a blessing, while his real enemies, including Iran, he called a curse. ... It is to be feared that the legitimate but disproportionate reaction of the Jewish state will not reduce the spread of terror, but increase it.”
The Lebanese deserve a chance
Incapacitating Hezbollah won't automatically lead to an enduring peace, Ilta-Sanomat explains:
“Paralysing Hezbollah could enable Lebanon to make a fresh start once this period of chaos ends. ... The Lebanese deserve the chance to live in a normal, democratically governed country in which the state has a monopoly on the use of force. The realisation of this dream would require Hezbollah to disarm and peace to reign between Lebanon's communities – and also a lasting peace settlement with Israel. At the moment, however, it's hard to believe that this dream will ever come true.”