Gaza deal: first hostages released – what comes next?
The initial six-week ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into force on Sunday. The terrorist organisation handed over three Israeli hostages, 95 are reportedly still being held. On 7 October 2023, Hamas abducted a total of around 250 hostages. In accordance with the agreement, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. Europe's press nonetheless remains sceptical about the deal.
Extremists could still torpedo the deal
La Stampa wonders whether the ceasefire will hold:
“The negotiations on the conditions of the second phase are not scheduled to begin until day 16. This extended timeframe gives extremist groups, both Israeli and Palestinian, the opportunity to weaken the agreement at the most critical moments and derail the subsequent phases. This already happened with the Oslo peace accords in the 1990s, when every step towards peace was undone by opponents of the compromise. ... Today, Israeli settlers whose sole goal is the destruction of Hamas and the resettlement of the Gaza Strip, and Palestinian extremists, who present the ceasefire as a victory, could win out against the peace process.”
A high price to pay
Israel's decision to release terrorists in exchange for hostages, as it did in 2011 with future Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, could have dire consequences, Observador points out:
“Which of the men Israel has pledged to release as part of this ceasefire will be the next Sinwar? Nassim Zaatari, the man responsible for the attack on a bus in Jerusalem that killed 23 people? Wael Qassem, author of the 2002 attack on the Hebrew University in Jerusalem? Tabet Mardawi, convicted of attacks that killed 20 Israelis and wounded 150? ... Unlike in 2011, no one, neither the [Israeli] military nor the families of the hostages, believes that these men will refrain from taking up weapons when they return to Gaza.”
Political perspective needed
There can be no real peace process without international support, says columnist Pierre Haski in France Inter:
“From the beginning, Netanyahu's great weakness was that he had no plan for the 'day after'. ... Now that day is approaching and nature is shying away from the vacuum. Who will control Gaza, its administration, its reconstruction, its security? A ceasefire without a political perspective is a guarantee of a repeat of the horrors this region has just experienced. The absence of a political solution does not eliminate the problems, it exacerbates them - this is the lesson of decades of history in the Middle East that has been ignored for far too long. The role of the international community will be important if this small glimmer of hope is not to be destroyed.”
Don't get your hopes up
The combination of Netanyahu and Trump significantly reduces the prospects of peace, Népszava comments:
“The populations on both sides are celebrating and hoping, but with the current leadership there is no chance of a long-term settlement. ... Trump, who is being hailed as a hero for the deal, is no guarantee for a solution. It looks like all he wanted was to show this off as a trophy on the day of his inauguration. Unlike his predecessor, he only mentioned the Israeli hostages, without saying a single word about ending the suffering of Palestinian civilians and respect for their human and civil rights. Without pressure from Washington or a change of government in Israel, the war will continue.”
No progress without robust realpolitik
The fight against Hamas must continue after the ceasefire, writes Die Welt:
“Any attempt at peace will otherwise be nothing but a continuation of the war by other means. Only when all Hamas terrorist cells have been eliminated from the Gaza Strip can the debate begin on multilateral troops and a takeover by a freely elected Palestinian government. Until then, we should hope the Israelis have the necessary skill to create the appropriate conditions. Unfortunately, hopes and desires are not enough to bring things forward in the Middle East; progress comes mainly thanks to robust realpolitik.”
More than one front
La Vanguardia puts the agreement in context:
“The Gaza conflict has opened up new fronts in Lebanon and Iran for Israel which in turn have brought favourable changes for Netanyahu. It has brought about a change of government in Beirut and weakened the regime in Tehran. It can't be ruled out that Israel will intensify the war with the Ayatollah regime this year. The bottom line is that the ceasefire does not mean the end of the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu will not stop until he has achieved his goals. Unfortunately, this is just a new chapter.”