Ceasefire in Gaza: a real chance for peace?
Israel and Hamas have agreed on a ceasefire which is to come into force in the Gaza Strip on Sunday. In the first of three phases, 33 Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners are to be released in batches. The media look at whether the agreement can bring lasting peace to the region and speculate on the role of US President-elect Donald Trump in the negotiations.
Maintain the positive dynamic
Der Standard is relieved:
“Finally, at least some of the hostages abducted on 7 October 2023 will be allowed to return home. Finally, hundreds of thousands of people will be allowed to leave the overcrowded refugee camps in the south of the Gaza Strip. Finally, people in the north of Gaza will be able to move around without fear of being killed. ... Now the goal is to stay the course. Signing a deal – and even that has yet to happen – is one thing. Keeping it alive beyond the first two weeks is the real challenge. What is absolutely necessary now is to maintain the pressure that made this agreement possible over the next few months. The world should not rely on Donald Trump alone for this.”
A step forward
El Mundo sees opportunities and challenges:
“From a humanitarian point of view the pact is a clear step forward. From a geopolitical perspective it is a step – albeit a fragile one – towards the necessary stabilisation of the Middle East. ... The ceasefire paves the way for Netanyahu and Trump to normalise relations between Israel and the Arab countries. ... Israel has restored its deterrent capability and decapitated Hamas and Hezbollah, while the status quo in the Middle East has changed to Iran's detriment. The wave of attacks against the 'axis of resistance' has profoundly weakened the Ayatollah regime. ... For his part, Netanyahu will have to resist pressure from the hardliners in his cabinet. ... The challenges are enormous.”
Complex political factors
Implementing the ceasefire won't be easy, predicts Liberal:
“The current draft of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is based on the plan announced by Biden at the end of May. ... The implementation of the agreement, and in particular its second and third crucial phases, will be 'left' to the Trump administration, with the sustainability of the ceasefire deal depending on ongoing negotiations with Hamas and complex political factors within Israel. Hamas will not 'simply' give up the last hostages (the release will be gradual, which is worrying for the hostages' families), and Netanyahu is also operating in a difficult political environment domestically and facing the objections of his far-right partners.”
The West must help finance reconstruction
The West has a responsibility to fulfil once the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas takes effect, Politiken stresses:
“We have stood by Israel throughout the war and supported its right to defend itself. Now, of course, we should also help to foot the bill for the destruction. And then prevent the tragedy from repeating itself. For while the direct cause of the war was indisputably Hamas's reprehensible terrorist attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, the underlying explanation is that a Palestinian state was not established long ago. As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and as EU Council President later this year, Denmark bears a great responsibility for ensuring that this happens.”
Triumph of unpredictability
Trump's capriciousness may have contributed to the ceasefire, The Daily Telegraph believes:
“It's an endorsement of the Mad Man theory of international relations. It suggests that Trump's dedication to national and personal interest can break deadlocks. ... Trump is pro-Israel, no doubt. But he's also pro-Trump, so he wanted a ceasefire agreed ahead of the inauguration. ... Biden was imprisoned by his historic affection for Israel. ... Trump, a freewheeling narcissist, gives the impression that he might walk away even from his allies. ... It's possible that a deal was struck in this instance because both sides know what the incoming president is like - how mean and random Trump can be.”
Trump has brought Hamas to heel
The US president-elect's pride is not entirely incomprehensible, writes Corriere della Sera:
“Trump is taking credit for the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Five days before his inauguration, he is presenting the deal as a success of his foreign policy. ... Trump had threatened the Palestinian leadership with an ultimatum and a deadline: he demanded that the hostages be released by 20 January, otherwise 'all hell would break loose'. It is likely that this had an impact. It would not be the first time that Islamic extremists have been more compliant towards a Republican. After Khomeini's revolution, the Iranians held American diplomats hostage for 444 days, ruining the Democrat Carter, only to release them after Republican Reagan won the election.”