Bundestag elections: initial analysis
The CDU/CSU and its chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz have emerged victorious from Germany's federal election, with 28.5 percent of the vote. Although the SPD led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz slipped to a historic low of 16.4 percent, a grand coalition between the two parties is still an option. The right-wing populist AfD came second (20.8 percent), while the Greens secured 11.6 percent and Left Party 8.8 percent.
A small grand coalition
The path to a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD is clear, comments Club Z:
“The good thing about this is that both parties want a two-party coalition, so it can be formed quickly. It will be able to make decisions more swiftly and won't have to make as many compromises. The traffic light coalition failed precisely because of its inertia. The bad news is that the grand coalition will actually be a small one - both the CDU and the SPD have achieved historically poor results and will need the support of the other parties in the Bundestag [because of the two-thirds majority requirement] if, for example, they want to amend the Basic Law, reform the debt brake or pass emergency budgets.”
AfD waiting in the wings
The big task for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats will be to rediscover the art of compromise, says Respekt:
“Because if they don't, and the next cabinet squabbles as fiercely and openly as the last one, voters' disgust with the entire political elite will increase. And with it the prospects of a party that is bitterly opposed to the entire system: the AfD, which doubled its share of the vote, making it the big winner of the election. ... So far nobody wants to govern with the AfD because of its extreme positions. But if a functioning coalition fails to emerge from the negotiations, this far-right, pro-Russian party could easily take first place in 2029.”
The miraculous rebirth of the Left Party
Sme is struck by the surprisingly good performance of the Left Party:
“The Left was able to mobilise. The social media appearances of the party's charismatic leaders Heidi Reichinnek and Ines Schwerdtner in which they criticised the CDU for voting with extremists contributed to this. And they set clear priorities: the fight against social inequality, taxing the rich, lowering rents and subsidising public transport. The party's strategy was particularly successful with young voters: in the 18-24 years bracket the Left Party came first with 25 percent, outperforming their biggest opponent the AfD by four percentage points.”
Trust in the system at stake
Friedrich Merz will also have the task of defending liberal democracy over the next four years, writes Der Spiegel:
“If he fails, that will probably be it. Then the AfD will become even stronger in the next election, perhaps even the strongest party. Chancellor Merz's task will be to restore trust in the political centre and, even more importantly, in the system itself, and in the superiority of liberal democracy over authoritarian approaches. Since reunification no chancellor has faced a greater task.”