Ukraine war: moving towards diplomacy?
For the first time since the start of the Ukraine war, the heads of the US and Russian foreign intelligence services, Bill Burns and Sergei Naryshkin, have met in Ankara to exchange views on how to prevent a nuclear war. Commentators speculate on what else was said at the meeting.
Formula for peace maturing behind the scenes
Radio Kommersant FM speculates:
“Various versions of secret behind-the-scene talks are being discussed. The most popular of these is the so-called Jake Sullivan formula: the US president's advisor is allegedly the originator of a compromise in a major deal between Russia and the West. Essentially, the idea is to achieve peace in Ukraine under certain conditions and then to set the rules of the game within the framework of the new reality. It is suspected that the US is putting pressure on Kyiv to tone down its demands. Otherwise, Western aid could be reduced.”
Strategists working flat out
The daily România liberă describes what a peace concept could look like:
“Behind the scenes American and Russian experts are working on various treaty formats. ... Putin withdraws his troopsfrom the other side of the Dniester and allows the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya power plant to supply Ukraine with electricity. In return Russia gets what it yearns for: Donetsk and Luhansk, but without official recognition. A tacit agreement. In this way, American strategists would advise Zelenksky to authorise the surrender of the eastern territories in exchange for guarantees that Ukraine will not be invaded in its entirety.”
Kyiv rejecting concessions
Lietuvos rytas points out that Ukraine has so far rejected any solution that does not entail the complete withdrawal of Russian troops:
“There is speculation that Washington and Moscow negotiated and forced Kyiv to accept that Ukraine would come to the negotiating table with Russia after receiving such a 'concession' [the withdrawal from Kherson] from Russia. ... However, Kyiv has categorically denied such rumours and vowed that it will continue its offensive until Crimea and the Donbas have been completely liberated, while the West and the US continue their backing.”
Talking turkey in secret
While the eyes of the world are fixed on Bali, there was some straight talk in Ankara at the meeting between CIA Director Bill Burns and his Russian counterpart Sergei Naryshkin, La Repubblica suspects:
“Burns is the man Biden entrusts with difficult missions, someone on whom the president relies for an alternative to the official diplomacy of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He was ambassador to Moscow from 2005 to 2008, where before that he served as counsellor for political affairs. He speaks fluent Russian and knows Putin very well. So he was the right man to deliver a harsh and clear warning to Naryshkin (one of the few people whom the tsar trusts): Do not dare to use tactical nuclear weapons, otherwise we will destroy you.”
The timing is up to Ukraine
The time will be right for peace negotiations when Kyiv says it is, El País writes:
“Washington and Brussels have realised that the time for negotiations has come. Ukraine is currently in the middle of a counter-offensive. ... The West is united on when to sit down with Putin: it is not for Washington or Brussels to decide when this moment has come or to set the terms, but for legitimate government of sovereign Ukraine with the support of its parliament. They need to be able to count on the same solidarity and support in building peace that their European and American allies are now providing them with in the war.”
The outcome is alway decided on the battlefield
Õhtuleht doubts that diplomacy will achieve much:
“Talk of the possibility of ending Russia's war against Ukraine through diplomacy only elicits a wry smile. No war in history was ever ended by diplomats. It never happened in the past, it will not happen now, and it will never happen in the future. The outcome of every war has always been, is and will be decided on the battlefield. All the diplomats do is formulate the outcome of the war on paper. This is also true of the current war between Russia and Ukraine, which can only end with the defeat of one side.”