Brandenburg election: SPD narrowly defeats AfD
The SPD has won a narrow victory against the far-right AfD party in the state election in Brandenburg. Neither the Greens nor the FDP made it into the state parliament, but the new BSW party secured well above the necessary number of votes. The Social Democrats in Brandenburg now want to hold exploratory talks with both the third-placed BSW and the fourth-placed CDU. Commentators examine the mood in Germany and the role of federal politics.
Germany shifts to the right
Tygodnik Powszechny notes a change in the zeitgeist in its neighbouring country:
“The state elections in the east were a major test of the mood in Germany as a whole. In a year's time, the [whole] country will elect a new parliament. There are already signs of a shift to the right across the entire population and a rejection of the liberal migration policies of Olaf Scholz's government. Climate policy issues, which just a few years ago played a central role, have almost completely disappeared from public debate. The Christian Democrats of the CDU have recognised this changed zeitgeist. Friedrich Merz is their candidate for chancellor. The conservative politician wants to compete with the AfD for right-wing votes. The next twelve months will be a time of great change on the other side of the River Oder.”
Adopt the model of other radicals in Europe
G4Media.ro takes a look at the Sunday polls for the parliamentary elections in Germany:
“Friedrich Merz's CDU is clearly ahead in the polls with 31 to 35 percent, but his dilemma is who he will govern with if the polls prove to be correct. ... In the right wing of the CDU, there are already some who want to join forces with the AfD, which in turn sees an alliance with the CDU as the only way to come to power and push through strict immigration controls. However, to achieve this, the AfD needs to position itself as a right-wing populist party - similar to Fratelli d'Italia, the RN in France and the FPÖ in Austria - and to exclude from the party those revisionists who feel drawn to the National Socialist past.”
Federal politics also in focus
Birgün takes a look at German politics at the federal level:
“In the eastern German states, a significant proportion of the population is opposed to the government's positions on Ukraine, Russia and Israel. The AfD and the BSW - which oppose supplying arms to Ukraine, the stationing in Germany of US long-range missiles that could strike Moscow or even more distant targets, and the embargoes against Russia that have exacerbated the economic crisis - have won the elections. ... These issues are the responsibility of the German government, not of the federal states. The extent to which coalitions with the BSW in state governments will have an impact on federal policy remains to be seen.”
Reprieve for the struggling chancellor
The ruling coalition in Berlin has been dealt a severe blow, writes Gazeta Wyborcza:
“Woidke's victory in Brandenburg, however, is good news for Scholz, who can now avoid a debate about whether he still has a mandate to govern Germany in view of his party's poor ratings. The SPD and the Greens are paying a high price for the coalition at the federal level. The same goes for the FDP, which performed so poorly in the Brandenburg elections that it wasn't even included in the polls. If it does turn out that only four parties enter the state parliament, negotiations to form a government could prove complicated. The key player will then probably be the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance.”
Clear show of dissatisfaction
Together the AfD and BSW won almost half of the votes, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung underlines:
“Only by mustering all their strength did the SPD manage to relegate the AfD to second place. The right-wing party is therefore once again at the centre of the political debate - and in Brandenburg, which was long considered to have a stable left-wing bias. ... If you add the votes that Sahra Wagenknecht's alliance secured from a standing start, almost 45 percent of Brandenburg's electorate voted for parties on the far left and right. East German voters have once again made their dissatisfaction with federal politics and the established political programme more than clear.”
A narrow escape
The result gives Scholz a minor reprieve, The Economist suspects:
“In the run-up to the election the talk in Berlin was that he might be replaced as the SPD's candidate in the federal campaign, much as in America the similarly lacklustre Joe Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris. The most likely Germanic version of Ms Harris would be Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister. His approval rating is currently 53 percent; Mr Scholz's is just 18 percent, according to a survey in September. ... The SPD's narrow win in Brandenburg may have given him a reprieve, perhaps only temporary, from the talk of his imminent replacement as the party's candidate for chancellor next year.”
The real winner is Woidke
The results testify to growing polarisation, La Stampa frets:
“There is a real risk that many people's sigh of relief will get stuck in their throats. Because the real winner of this election round is Brandenburg's Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke. ... He has won despite the fact that his state is objectively shifting to the right and that the chancellor was of no help whatsoever. ... Not only that, but with his call to arms based on the Macron model - 'It's either me or the right' - he may have achieved a positive result personally, but he has also polarised the political debate to such an extent that he has taken voters away from the Greens and even the CDU (which has never performed so poorly).”
A reflection of the mood in the country as a whole
The Salzburger Nachrichten sees Brandenburg as representative of all Germany:
“The federal state that surrounds Berlin like Lower Austria surrounds Vienna is a good indicator of the mood in the country. A mixture of West and East Germans live in Berlin's suburbs, ex-GDR elites as well as those who lost out after reunification, old West Berliners and newcomers from West Germany. The narrative about East Germany doesn't work here the way it does in Saxony and Thuringia. In this respect, the AfD and BSW boom and the decline of the old parties are a reflection of the situation in Germany as a whole.”