Germany poised to vote
Germany will elect a new government in a snap federal election this Sunday. The latest polls put the CDU/CSU in the lead at around 30 percent, followed by the right-wing populist AfD with 20 percent. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD and the Greens are trailing behind with 16 and 13 to 14 percent, respectively. The Left Party (6 to 8 percent), Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and the FDP (both at 4 to 5 percent) all stand a fair chance of securing seats in the Bundestag. What's at stake for Germany and Europe here?
Little hope of a strong government
Germany is headed for a phase of political and economic instability, The Irish Times fears:
“Merz's centre-right programme, however, will make attempts to build a majority coalition more difficult. The maths will be complicated by uncertainty about how many minor parties will pass the five percent vote threshold to get into the Bundestag. Should he opt to lead a minority government, surviving on a vote by vote basis with the support of the SPD and Greens, Germany faces the prospect of more years of drift. … But this election could make it difficult to form a strong government.”
No time for technocrats
Seznam Zprávy's takes stock of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's performance:
“He governs in a technocratic and to a certain extent authoritarian manner - just like Angela Merkel before him. The Germans liked this dry and non-dramatic style for a long time, but unfortunately in the face of collapsing certainties and major changes it is no longer enough. ... In these times of transatlantic division, escalating geopolitical tensions, an exhausted current economic model and an environmental crisis, Germany needs a leader who can rise above these overwhelming circumstances. The moderate technocrat Olaf Scholz was not that. ... But Scholz's successor will not have things any easier - on the contrary. The crisis of the international order continues to escalate.”
Coalition with AfD unlikely - for now
TVnet assesses the German right-wing populist party's prospects:
“Despite its growing popularity, the other major German parties continue to rule out forming a government with the AfD. So even if the AfD were to win a significant number of seats in the Bundestag, its chances of entering government are limited. ... If the traditional parties fail to agree on a stable coalition, however, there is the possibility that their stance on cooperating with the AfD could change, especially if its popularity continues to grow.”
Germany's resistance put to the test
Voters will also be indirectly taking a stance on the new direction in US politics, Libération explains:
“The international context in which this weekend's German election is taking place makes it all the more decisive. ... The progress of the far right will be watched very closely on Sunday. Because in addition to its domestic policy component - in particular the issue of migration - the AfD's score will also be an indicator of Germany's resistance to the ill winds blowing from the US, with Elon Musk and Vice President J.D. Vance having endorsed the German far-right party.”
US hoping that the far right will do well
Washington will be eagerly awaiting the result, G4Media agrees:
“Representatives of the Trump administration openly endorsed the extremist AfD ahead of the election because one of the US president's aims is to weaken solidarity within the EU by supporting parties that favour isolationism. If the election confirms a solid pro-EU majority, Germany will continue to be seen as the engine of the bloc. If, on the other hand, the AfD becomes an unavoidable party for a governing coalition, the US will gain new political leverage in the EU.”
Get rid of the debt brake!
Germany's sluggish economy will only recover if the next government allows large-scale investment, writes the Financial Times:
“Having registered negative growth for two straight years, Germany has underperformed the US and even the Eurozone as a whole. This bleak situation calls for market-driven reforms to boost innovation and competitiveness, and for the abandonment of the ultra-cautious, constitutionally enshrined 'debt brake' that has suppressed domestic investment. The main parties are inclined to take this step, but the hesitancy of Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, gives cause for concern.”
SPD grasping at straws
Chancellor Scholz is trying to discredit CDU leader Friedrich Merz in the final phase of the campaign, Český rozhlas observes:
“Merz has publicly stated countless times in recent days that he has no intention of working either directly or indirectly with the AfD after the election. The ruling Social Democrats, who apparently have no chance of defending their 2021 victory, continue to sow doubt. In the last few metres of the race their election campaign has become monothematic, directed entirely against Merz personally. The SPD is doing this knowing full well that it will probably have to negotiate the next government with him. From the outside this may seem short-sighted, but from the perspective of a drowning man grasping at straws, it is somewhat understandable.”
Collective boost needed
La Vanguardia sees enormous challenges ahead:
“For all the AfD's headlines, Germany's most worrying problem right now may not be immigration but the identity crisis provoked by the realisation that the German economic miracle is stalling; the car industry, which accounts for six percent of GDP and 870,000 direct jobs, faces an uphill battle against Trump's tariffs and the Chinese car industry. ... This industrial crisis will probably be more difficult to overcome than the social one. ... The winner of the election must be acutely aware that the top priority must be to inject momentum and restore the country's confidence - in a Europe that is more isolated than ever before. ... Germany needs a real collective boost to return to its best form.”
Moscow bracing for worst-case scenario
Radio Kommersant FM expects German-Russian relations to deteriorate if Merz becomes chancellor:
“In the worst-case scenario Merz will follow his words with deeds and implement his election programme without taking into account the SPD, which traditionally pursues a more balanced policy towards Moscow. In this case, Germany will drastically increase its military budget (initially up to 3 percent of GDP, which Scholz rejects), boost aid to Kyiv, move closer to London and Paris on the issue of sending European troops to Ukraine and support maximum anti-Russian sanctions in Brussels, aligning itself with Poland and the Baltic states.”