Trade conflict with the US: threat of further tariffs
The EU Commission has reacted swiftly to US tariffs of 25 percent on imports of steel and aluminium from Europe and announced plans to impose tariffs on 26 billion euros worth of US imports, including bourbon whiskey, jeans, motorbikes, boats and peanut butter, as of 1 April. In reaction to the announcement, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200 percent on wine and champagne from the EU.
Europe can't afford this
The EU member states must reckon with significant disadvantages in the event of a lasting customs dispute, Naftemporiki warns:
“The 'victim' of a lost trade war would not only be the European economy, but the EU itself - struggling with internal conflicts that will worsen as long as the spiral of tariffs and counter-tariffs continues. ... Schools, universities, research, healthcare, but also investments in the real economy will all be badly hit. Because - or so we are told - spending on the welfare state and supporting companies could jeopardise financial stability. Of course, this 'legendary' stability ceases to be of any concern when it comes to spending on armaments.”
Push for new deals
Time is likely to work against the US president, writes Tageblatt:
“Worries about a recession are already growing in the US as a result of Trump's erratic policies. The US stock market is in a downwards spiral, and many Americans are dependent on high share prices, particularly for their retirement security. ... Trump must fear growing resistance to his policies. The EU, on the other hand, has more time because the US tariffs on European steel and aluminium will initially have little negative impact on the EU's economic performance, with a minus in the per mille range. ... However, the US tariffs will lead to volume diversions to Europe, which will push steel prices down in the medium term. The EU should use this time to quickly conclude new trade agreements with other regions.”
Make a conciliatory offer
Gas and arms purchases by the EU could de-escalate the situation, believes Ilta-Sanomat:
“The EU could make an offer which is beneficial for both sides and secures a trade agreement. A conciliatory offer could result from the EU states' own requirements, such as the need to boost imports of liquefied natural gas and purchase more defence equipment. The US sells both. An increase in EU gas and arms purchases from the US would reduce the EU's trade surplus and the US deficit - and it is precisely this increase in defence spending that Trump has demanded from the EU's Nato members, and also promised to his voters.”
Hit US services with tariffs next
Handelsblatt looks at what could be coming in the tariff war:
“The next blow from Washington has already been announced. Trump wants to impose further tariffs on EU products - including cars this time. The volume is so great that it will be virtually impossible to impose classic counter-tariffs without damaging EU companies. A new strategy is therefore under consideration in Brussels: measures against US services. This would be a smart move because the EU is by far the most important market for US exports - not just goods, but also services. And this would be particularly painful for Trump's pro-business buddies: the big US tech companies that are dependent on Europe as a key market.”
Economic reality working against Trump
De Morgen sees parallels with the Great Depression of the 1930s - and the chance to avoid a similar scenario:
“History doesn't have to repeat itself. When the catastrophic impact of Trump's policies becomes clear, particularly on the bank accounts of his powerful sponsors, the pressure to change course will be huge. Economic reality will become the biggest political opposition to the Trump administration. ... But first, things must get much worse, and many people in all walks of life must lose a lot of prosperity. And the same goes for Europe. ... Nevertheless there is room for cautious hope. Our political leaders have been shaken up. Not a moment too soon, and hopefully not too late either.”
Strike back with green protectionism
The EU needs a new economic strategy, demands Socialist MEP Jean-Marc Germain in a guest commentary in Libération:
“The EU must rethink its trade policy. ... This implies the repatriation of as production as possible and a decarbonised re-industrialisation of the continent. The time has come to reorganise global trade flows! ... Let's turn a bad thing - Trump's reckless decisions - into a good thing: let's prioritise Made in Europe and Buy European here in Europe, the world's second largest market, in order to expand our green industry, create jobs and guarantee our security and social model.”