Trump and Putin agree on partial ceasefire – what comes next?
In a phone call with US President Donald Trump, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has agreed to a 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, but not to the comprehensive ceasefire proposed by Washington and Kyiv. According to Trump, both sides now want to continue 'working quickly to have a complete ceasefire'. Europe's media examine what the call achieved.
Minimal success
Although there was no major breakthrough at least a little progress was made, Avvenire concludes:
“After three years of war every missile not fired, every bomb not dropped is a positive result. However the long phone conversation suggests that finding a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow will be easier than putting a quick end to the war in Ukraine. The 30-day halt to attacks on energy infrastructure which the Kremlin leader agreed to as proposed by the US president is the first self-imposed restriction on Russian military action since the start of the conflict. It will soon become clear whether this will also be accompanied by a reduction in attacks on other civilian targets.”
Test run for peace negotiations
The limited ceasefire will show whether a full ceasefire is in the cards at all, political scientist Vladimir Fesenko writes on Facebook:
“Detailed negotiations on a ceasefire that covers ports and energy infrastructure must begin soon. These should be direct talks between expert groups from Russia, Ukraine and the US. ... This will be the first test of how quickly and efficiently an agreement on such a ceasefire can be reached. The negotiation mechanisms and procedures will also be put to the test. And then there's the main test: how will this agreement be implemented? This will determine the future of the negotiations on a full ceasefire.”
Moscow playing with fire
Despite its good negotiating position Russia shouldn't overstretch Trump's goodwill, Capital comments:
“Moscow is feeling confident after the recapture of almost all the territory occupied by Ukraine in the Kursk region and the slow but steady advance in Donbas. ... Putin is no doubt determined to exploit Trump's 'empathy'. In this sense, his strategy could be to appear intransigent on the key points in order to achieve a peace agreement that favours Russia's demands. ... But here, Moscow could be playing with fire. Russian hubris could, in fact, lead to a shift in US policy vis-à-vis Ukraine, to Moscow's detriment.”
Bargaining chips are the name of the game for Putin
In Unian, political scientist Ihar Tyshkevich sees three key elements in Moscow's negotiating strategy:
“Firstly, the attempt to broaden the field of discussion by offering the US services in other regions and demanding concessions on Ukraine in return. Secondly, the 'fragmentation' of the issues at stake in the war in Ukraine by attempting to turn individual components into independent negotiating points – such as the issue of the Black Sea, and in future perhaps also the energy issue. Thirdly, the US is being offered economic advantages (or simply resources) in return for certain political concessions. Russia's positioning vis-à-vis China is not on the table yet. But I think Putin will haggle with both Washington and Beijing on this.”
Not just about Ukraine
Israel-based political scientist Abbas Gallyamov notes that Iran was also a key topic during the phone call. He writes on Facebook:
“Putin's negotiating strategy is based on expanding the number of issues under discussion – in order to trade his own concessions on other less important topics (such as the Middle East) for concessions from Trump on Ukraine. However, Ukrainians should not yet hold a grudge against the American president, because after all he rejected Putin's main demand, namely to stop arming Ukraine for the duration of the ceasefire. This is precisely why no full-scale ceasefire was agreed. But at the same time, thanks to the issue of Iran, the two at least managed not to quarrel.”
No quick fix
The Süddeutsche Zeitung is cautiously optimistic:
“Based on the communiqué published after the phone call, the two leaders didn't do any harm and have taken cautious steps towards tackling the problems at hand. In particular the reference to a ceasefire in the area of energy infrastructure gives cause for hope. ... It seems that the Ukrainian pinpricks against Russian refineries are having an effect. Perhaps Russia also has respect for the newly developed Ukrainian cruise missile which is about to be deployed. And negotiations will continue in Saudi Arabia. This is also good news, because the complexities of this war cannot be overcome from one day to the next.”