Erdoğan and Putin - a good team?
Putin and Erdoğan have met for the second time since the start of the Ukraine war. In Sochi the two heads of state advocated closer trade relations - even if their positions on Syria, Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh are in part diametrically opposed.The press comments on Turkey's ambition to play a pivotal role.
Turkey making itself indispensable
The Turkish president is skilfully manoeuvring between blocs, Kleine Zeitung explains:
“Now Erdoğan is turning to Russia, which would very much like to use Turkey to circumvent the sanctions imposed by the West over the Ukraine war. ... Western governments fear Turkey could break their unanimity on the sanctions. The Turkish president is counting on not having to fear serious consequences from Europe and the US because his country is too important for them. He could be right. With the Istanbul grain deal, Turkey has shown how central its mediating role is in the Ukraine conflict.”
Don't neglect bilateral relations
Europe and the US are underestimating the collateral damage of the West's sanctions policy, Handelsblatt warns:
“Not only Turkey but also countries like China, India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil do not want to break with Russia. They are very sceptical about the West's sanctions policy and its side effects which extend far beyond Russia. The Ukraine war has hence resulted in a global soft power race - a race among states to exert diplomatic influence on other states. ... Putin and Erdoğan are very much aware of the geopolitical importance of their bilateral relations. And they'll know how to use it to their advantage.”
Make Ankara new proposals for cooperation
The West would do well to show appreciation for Ankara's key position, writes the pro-government Daily Sabah:
“Turkey made several attempts to deepen its relationship with the US and the EU. The response to such attempts should not be abandonment in Syria or support for Greece's maximalist demands over the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean. ... The current situation in the international arena requires Turkey to pursue an exceptional policy toward Russia. The Western governments must take all those equilibria into account and approach Ankara with new proposals for cooperation, investment and integration.”
More a community of convenience than a great love
Although Putin has stated that the two countries intend to have closer relations in the future this is less friendship than pure pragmatism, Habertürk comments:
“Putin's statements to Erdoğan, ranging from natural gas supplies to Europe to grain deliveries, point to the beginning of a new era in relations between the two countries. ... On the one hand Putin wants to lessen the squeeze from sanctions. On the other, he sees Turkey as a window to the West with which he can maintain a balance at home. But while he is doing that he won't refrain from threatening Turkey at the same time, as he did with the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.”
Nothing possible without Turkey
Ankara is currently playing a central role at the negotiating table, Público explains:
“Turkey is strengthening its diplomatic clout in a configuration that allows it to avoid sanctions against Moscow and sell drones to Kyiv. And it is using its geographical position - which allows it to activate the Montreux Convention and control the Dardanelles and the Bosporus - to achieve a geopolitical victory. ... The success of the grain deal coincided with statements by Putin about the impossibility of a victory in the event of a nuclear war, and those by Gerhard Schröder after a meeting with the Russian president, according to whom the success of the grain deal 'can slowly be developed into a ceasefire'. ... Conclusion: Without Erdoğan, there can be no negotiations at the moment.”
Turkish president getting ahead of himself
The mediator role between the fronts is not likely to work for Turkey for long, the Süddeutsche Zeitung believes:
“Erdoğan maintains good relations with Kyiv and Moscow, thus making himself indispensable. This irritating seesaw policy can be respected as a clever attempt at independent action by a regional power situated between the fronts: Turkey has to live with Russia and the West. But that's only how it appears at first glance. Turkey, a regional power, is neither militarily nor politically nor economically a globally active power. The US, the EU and Nato will once again raise the question of Ankara's reliability. The question is not whether or not Erdoğan will get ahead of himself, but when.”