New Hampshire primary: race over?
Donald Trump remains the favourite to become the Republican candidate in the US presidential election in November, having defeated his rival Nikki Haley by eleven percentage points in the New Hampshire primary. Haley is now pinning her hopes on the primary in her home state of South Carolina. Europe's press calls on politicians to prepare now for the time after November.
Major EU states need to get busy
Even if the US can't simply withdraw from Nato - as Trump has threatened to do - other countries should be prepared for all eventualities, warns Dnevnik:
“He could practically cause the alliance to collapse by reducing US contributions, withdrawing from military exercises and other joint initiatives, and mocking and denigrating Nato with his rhetoric. With such actions he could actually bring about its demise. The larger EU countries should prepare for this scenario and focus on alternative projects for guaranteeing the security, protection and integration of Ukraine as well as the deterrence of Russia.”
Don't be taken by surprise this time
The quicker the Republicans decide, the fewer excuses the US's partners in Europe will have, writes the Financial Times:
“When Donald Trump won the US presidential election in 2016 America's allies around the world reacted with consternation and shock. They will have no such excuse if he wins again in November. His victory in the New Hampshire primary makes him the all but inevitable presidential nominee for the Republican party. An unpredictable isolationist could well return to the White House. Trump's effective locking up of the nomination so quickly at least gives US allies nearly a year to prepare for that possibility.”
Enough of the media hype
The ex-president will lose to Biden again in the end, columnist Robert Reich predicts in The Guardian:
“Headline after headline offers the same breathless, spellbound story: 'Trump is dominating.' 'Disciplined'. 'Ruthless'. 'Hugely effective'. 'Remarkable'. ... This is dangerous nonsense. The danger in the mainstream media's awestruck coverage of Trump right now is that it creates a false impression that Trump is unstoppable, all the way through the general election. But no one should confuse Trump's performance in the Republican primaries for success in the presidential election. When Americans actually focus on the presidential election and the stark reality of choosing between Biden and Trump, I expect they will once again choose Biden.”
Trump victory wouldn't do Moscow much good
The state-run news agency Ria Novosti doubts that Russia would benefit if Trump becomes president:
“During his first presidency he did nothing that improved relations with Russia. ... If you go beyond the nice headlines and take a closer look at Trump's promise to end the conflict in Ukraine in one day, it also becomes clear that any great expectations would be premature. The fact is that Trump has not yet said a word about how exactly he intends to end the conflict, or what conditions he would offer Russia for a 'deal'. And there are many indications that these conditions would be entirely satisfactory for the US while no one will think of asking Russia for its opinion beforehand.”
Everything will be decided before March
Trump's nomination is as good as certain, says Revista 22:
“The next major primary will take place in South Carolina, the home state of former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. Trump is currently in the lead by 30 percentage points there - and that lead is likely to widen. If this large gap remains, Haley's only option will likely be to drop out of the race, because there's no point in spending a lot of money when the chances of winning are minimal. This makes it very likely that Trump will win the nomination long before Super Tuesday on 5 March.”
Nikki Haley isn't out of the running yet
Nikki Haley remains in the race for good reason, Habertürk analyses:
“There are two key demographic groups where Trump still lacks support: college graduates and women who live in privileged suburban neighbourhoods. These voter groups, who voted for Trump and against Clinton in 2016, changed the outcome of the 2020 election when they preferred Biden. ... Haley could be a vice presidential candidate who responds to the doubts of these voters. If Trump sees that she can help him, he will offer her this post. ... Haley is also making her own calculations. Even if she can't beat Trump, she's staying in the race because she's considering the possibility that he might somehow not be able to run. Trump has a lot of lawsuits to deal with.”
Good mood in the White House
Biden's campaign team will be pleased with the outcome in New Hampshire for various reasons, Corriere della Sera believes:
“Donald Trump's clear victory among the Republicans makes the nomination of the candidate Joe Biden considers easier to beat almost inevitable. At the same time, the share of the vote secured by Nikki Haley shows that the Republican leader is not very popular among independent voters, who are crucial for victory in next November's presidential elections. This allows the former South Carolina governor to continue her primary campaign, forcing Trump to burn through his campaign resources amid internal party disputes.”
Trump's calculation may work
Trump's potential victory in the primaries could have an impact on his legal proceedings, says Le Figaro:
“Donald Trump will probably have finished the primaries before the court cases begin. The impact of the former on the latter is undeniable. The Supreme Court, which will have to rule on the former president's ineligibility as imposed by Colorado and Maine, will no longer be ruling in the abstract once Trump is the chosen candidate. This is undoubtedly Trump's calculation, but it also remains the great unknown of his campaign.”
Inner weakness makes him aggressive
Trump's verbal attacks are a sign of his insecurity, the Irish Examiner puts in:
“Like a Roman emperor or mob boss, Trump used his victory speech in New Hampshire to humiliate his former opponents - and make sinister threats against his last primary rival. ... Trump could have been magnanimous in victory and congratulated Haley on a race well run. Instead, he was palpably irked by her refusal to drop out of the race. Petty and vindictive, he became a playground bully punching down for the benefit of an audience that glories in metaphorical violence. ... But like many bullies, Trump's ostentatious show of strength was motivated by inner weakness.”