Middle East: what can the negotiations in Doha achieve?
Negotiations aimed at preventing the situation in the Middle East from escalating further begin today in Doha. Officially the aim is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but observers hope that a deal will also be struck to dissuade Iran from carrying out its plans for revenge. European media analyse the conditions under which the negotiations are taking place.
Absent yet present
The absentees are setting the tone, Avvenire observes:
“Although Iran will not be present, it will play a role through the threat of 'revenge' against Israel and the shelling carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. From Gaza, Hamas spokespersons report that there are almost 40,000 'martyrs'. This is another reason why the organisation's envoys will not be sitting down at the Doha table for the time being, but Qatar (which is leading the negotiations together with Egypt and the US) is also the guarantor for the protection of the extremist movement's politburo in exile.”
No energy for a conflict
Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov, who lives in Israel, describes Tehran's interests in the negotiations on Facebook:
“Iran needs to think about how it can save its already ailing economy from collapse. The country has huge oil and gas reserves, but at the same time a huge energy deficit. Every summer there are power cuts in Iran and every winter gas has to be conserved. Yesterday, for example, Tehran was left without electricity. The deficit is growing, there is a lack of money and technology to develop new reserves, while the old ones are gradually drying up. The only chance to restart economic growth in this situation is a new nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions.”
Tehran has kept a cool head before
There have been fears of an Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel for over two weeks now. Yeni Asya explains why it may not materialise at all:
“Some media commentators do not expect a major retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. In particular, the weak response to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani four years ago on Iraqi territory is still fresh in people's minds. This is why there is a group of people who do not expect any serious retaliatory measures.”
Men in smart suits
La Repubblica takes a closer look at the protagonists of the negotiations and notes that one of them bears a resemblance to Winston Wolf from the film Pulp Fiction, who wears a smart suit and solves problems with his sharp mind:
“For the Americans, the key man is Bill Burns, the 'Mr Wolf' of diplomacy intertwined with the secret services, the head of the CIA with 40 years of diplomatic experience, most of it in the Middle East. ... It was he who negotiated the nuclear deal with Iran in 2013. On the Israeli-Palestinian dossier he works hand in hand with Abbas Kamel, who is more than Egypt's spy chief: he is the core of al-Sisi's power system.”