German state elections: what to make of AfD and BSW successes?
Europe's press continues to analyse the election results in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia. The far-right AfD emerged as the strongest party in Thuringia, receiving almost a third of the vote, with the conservative CDU coming second. In Saxony, the CDU won a narrow victory against the AfD. In both states, the Offices for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the AfD as a right-wing extremist organisation. The newly founded BSW party achieved double-digit results.
Unsavoury convergence of left and right
Journalist Mojca Pišek writes in Delo:
“For all of us who believe in the need for socially progressive left-wing politics, the outcome of the German state elections is a bitter pill that sticks in our throats. The German fusion of left and right-wing politics, their convergence at the expense of identity and ethnic minorities, shows that today a successful left-wing party must have at least some convergence with the right. ... Germany offers important lessons to the European left, including the Slovenian left. Firstly, it is important to pinpoint both the issues that have real potential to mobilise and the ones that scare voters away. Secondly, and this is far more difficult, is the issue of charismatic leaders.”
AfD by proxy
The debate about migration is tipping ever further to the right, criticises Der Standard:
“Emptying the prospects of refugees with ever tougher measures won't help prevent Islamism and radicalisation. But that's no longer the issue anyway: immigration is being portrayed as the root of all evil. ... It seems absurd when the AfD is excluded from government 'firewall' style yet other parties are increasingly adopting its demands. Populist and unrealistic demands for deportations, pushbacks and cuts to social benefits are causing the already toxic discourse on the subject of refugees and migration to tip ever further to the right and making it possible to say ever more inhumane things.”
Stable coalition unlikely with extremes
The right-wing conservative essayist Jaime Nogueira Pinto warns in Observador:
“The European economic crisis, political decadence, submission to the interests of the Biden administration, fear of an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict - all this explains a vote of rejection and protest that has given two young parties - AfD and BSW - almost half of the votes. ... The spirit and programmes [of these two parties] are essentially very similar on important issues. And on these important issues – immigration, war – BSW is also very far removed from the established parties, so it won't be easy to form a stable government with it.”
Insecurity propelling the people towards the extremes
El Periódico de Catalunya warns of an emerging trend:
“Germany is following the path taken by Italy and France, which are split between two ideological extremes. The political space in the centre is shrinking, the traditional parties are suffering a serious credibility crisis and the ultra-parties (on both ideological extremes) are filling the gaps left by the major parties because the latter are incapable of providing answers to the most pressing questions. ... This ongoing paradigm shift is leading us to more radical, anxious, and consequently less healthy societies. Given the choice between security and freedom, citizens will always opt for security, and insecurity is fuelling people's fears. This is why they are moving towards the extremes, because they seem more powerful, even if they are more deceptive.”
Poland no stranger to such twists and turns
The AfD's positions sound familiar to Polityka:
“ In our country, the PiS undermined democracy in a similar way for eight years: sowing distrust in the state that had been built up since 1989, in the constitution, in the democratic opposition and civil society. With similar results: the disintegration of social cohesion, a distrust of non-PiS and non-right-wing elites, a susceptibility to conspiracy theories, an aversion to the EU and the West as threats to our sovereignty and identity. There have been sudden twists and turns in this struggle: the victory of the democrats in Poland, France and the UK, and now the successes of the far right and the far left in two German states. The democtrats' path to victory is long and winding.”
At the beginning of the learning curve
A look at the situation in Austria could help, suggests the Kleine Zeitung:
“Austria already experienced in the 1990s some of the things that are being discussed in Germany today. We can also provide useful tips with regard to the life cycles of right-wing populist phenomena. Other parties may now be coming to the conclusion that they need to explain their own policies better to 'the people', as one can see from their reactions, but they still seem to be at the very beginning of a learning curve. Waking up to the fact that they are focusing on the wrong content and on issues that are of little importance to voters would be a start.”
Franco-German engine stuttering
The timing is anything but favourable, columnist Pierre Haski warns in France Inter:
“The problem is that this crisis coincides with the crisis in France, which lacks a parliamentary majority. To have France and Germany both focused on their own political crises and less on global issues at the same time is a real source of concern given that they are the traditional driving force behind the EU. In the midst of the war in Ukraine, with just a few weeks to go before the decisive US elections, and in an already destabilised world, Europe needs a well-functioning engine. The shock waves will be long-lasting.”
A growing danger for Ukraine
Berlingske finds the situation very worrying:
“The stakes are incredibly high for Denmark and Europe. Germany is the largest and strongest power in the EU. If it becomes politically weaker this will affect the whole of Europe, and right now it poses a direct threat to Ukraine's chances of winning the war against Russia on the battlefield. Sahra Wagenknecht is trying to transpose the results of the state elections to federal politics by demanding that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine be a prerequisite for the start of negotiations on intergovernmental cooperation in the individual states.”
A political earthquake
La Repubblica is reminded of 1924:
“This is an earthquake that will change history. For the first time since the end of the war, a far-right party has won a state election in Germany. 90 years after Hitler's seizure of power. And in Thuringia, a state which is notorious for having elected Nazis to the state parliament for the first time in 1924. Exactly a century ago. Björn Höcke, the leader of the AfD in Thuringia, is one of the undisputed winners of this vote, having received almost 33 percent. And the big losers are the three factious parties in the coalition government.”
This is not Weimar 2.0
The AfD's success should not be overstated, The Times advises:
“Yes, Thuringia was where the Nazis got their first electoral break at regional level. Yes, if the AfD wins a blocking minority of one third of the seats in the state parliament it will be in a position to cause a certain amount of mischief. And yes, it may sporadically work together with the BSW or the CDU in Thuringia. Yet it will remain frozen out of government for as long as the taboos continue to hold. The challenge for the mainstream parties is to stop leaning on tired Nazi analogies as a crutch and to treat this warning with the seriousness it deserves.”
The firewall is holding - for now
These elections were by no means just about local issues, Rzeczpospolita sums up:
“Eastern Germany is showing its dissatisfaction with federal policies on the war in Ukraine and on immigration. Because not regional issues but international politics were the main focus of campaigning in Thuringia and Saxony. ... So although the cordon sanitaire around the AfD will probably hold this time, it is already fraying dangerously. The dissatisfied east has not yet spoken its last word.”
Bizarre coalitions are not the solution
Lidové noviny does not view the current approach to the AfD as a long-term solution:
“The AfD wins elections but then fails to form viable majorities and governments, which is why bizarre coalitions are formed. This means the CDU is forever condemned to govern with left-wing parties or to remain in opposition. Wouldn't it be better to ban the AfD through the courts or allow them to join the game? How long can the current situation continue?”
Extremism also present in western Germany
The election results are significant despite the low population in eastern Germany, writes G4Media.ro:
“In both states, the parties in the traffic-light coalition achieved very weak results. ... In the meantime, the federal CDU leader, Friedrich Merz, is under pressure from the right wing of his party to intensify his anti-immigration rhetoric, which appears to have helped the AfD - following the terror attack in Solingen. ... Together, the three states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg [where elections will be held on 22 September] account for just ten percent of the nation's population and have characteristics of the former communist East, however, the rise of the extremist AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) parties is no longer an isolated phenomenon, rather there is a threat that this will spread to the West of the country.”
No more optimism about progress
For Zeit Online, the election result shows a loss of confidence that
“the established parties - from the CDU to the Greens - are still capable of solving the problems that matter to most to voters in Saxony and Thuringia, above all migration. ... But perhaps the biggest problem is that there is no longer confidence in the version of Germany that seemed to exist for many decades - a very proud, innovative, progressive country. The trains no longer run, the energy transition is a moderate disaster, steel companies are pulling back. It is no longer enough to just talk about this. This election result proves that. There is no more optimism about progress.”