After pager explosions: Israel attacks targets in Lebanon
Israel has been carrying out airstrikes against Islamist Hezbollah militia targets in southern Lebanon since Thursday night, according to its own statements. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced that the war was now entering a new phase. Europe's press discusses this latest development, and also the foregoing mass attacks involving exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, and their potential to set a precedent.
Starting signal for a bigger operation
Israle wants more, writes the Kleine Zeitung:
“Benjamin Netanyahu's government recently made it clear that the roughly 100,000 Israelis on the northern border with Lebanon who had to be relocated due to the constant missile attacks should be able to return to their villages. This requires Hezbollah to be driven out of the border area, which neither the UN troops stationed there nor the Lebanese government have managed to do so far. According to military experts, Israel is likely to have completed preparations for a ground offensive by now. The pager operation, which will no doubt have severely weakened Hezbollah's communications, at least temporarily, would then be something like the starting signal.”
Threat of a Phyrric victory
Glavkom takes a look at what continued attacks by Israel on Hezbollah would mean:
“Now the third war between Israel and Lebanon will most likely break out. ... Israel would undoubtedly defeat Lebanon technically, but it could be a Pyrrhic victory, because it can only be achieved at the price of an unprecedented number of casualties among the Lebanese civilian population. This would destroy the bridge of Israel's Abraham Accords with the Gulf states and sour its relations with Saudi Arabia. ... Europe would ultimately be forced into an anti-Israel stance in this conflict, and active support for Israel from the US in this war would only be conceivable if Trump were to win.”
Hezbollah is more than a terrorist organisation
Several times in the past, Israel has believed it was vastly superior to Hezbollah, Handelsblatt points out:
“Only to learn otherwise each time. In any case, the militant group cannot be defeated by military means alone. Because Hezbollah is not simply a 'terrorist organisation', it is also a political party, a social club and a mafia-like business conglomerate. It is virtually omnipresent in Lebanon.”
Data security as a matter of life and death
Habertürk draws the following conclusions:
“Firstly, data security is more important than ever, indeed it is now a matter of life and death. Any access to your data or information makes you vulnerable. We need to take precautions in all areas of life. Secondly, the widespread distribution of the software and technology used in the attacks and the facts of which organisations have access to it will increase the scale of this threat exponentially. ... Thirdly, it is currently inconceivable that the world will show a common will to combat these cyber-bullies. How could it, when everyone is trying to stay one step ahead of their enemies.”
Batteries will become a global security problem
Diena comments:
“Modern civilisation might as well be called the lithium battery civilisation. Since these energy storage devices first came on the market in 1991, billions have been produced and they're used in a wide variety of devices. ... Meanwhile, Islamic radical websites have already been flooded with calls to 'take revenge on the infidels', in other words, manufacture explosive replicas and ship them to the West. ... Accordingly, the series of explosions in Lebanon will not only significantly impact the situation in the Middle East, it will also become a major security challenge on a global scale.”
This could be a black swan event
The blasts highlight the dangers of buying technology from unfriendly states, Expressen warns:
“Even without exploding things, a great deal of damage can be done - for example through the installation of back door programmes which can take control of a communication device and render it useless just when it is most needed. ... But regaining control over technology is no easy task. ... Entirely decoupling the economies of Western countries from China would reduce global GDP by seven percent, according to an estimate by the IMF. Sometimes black swans - completely unexpected events with a major impact - simply appear. The blown pagers in the Middle East could prove to be just such an event.”
Risk of a conflagration
This latest attack may mark the beginning of a war against Hezbollah, France Inter fears:
“What and how much will ensue, and how will the main players react? If Israel decides to launch an offensive against Hezbollah – which is a far more formidable opponent than the Palestinian Hamas, even if the pager attack has demonstrated its vulnerability – Tehran cannot stand idly by. ... And what will the US do? It is calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, but whether it likes it or not it would be drawn into this regional conflict. We have not yet reached that point, but all these questions are coming into sharp focus as events accelerate. The looming scenario can be summarised in one word: war.”
Escalation unlikely
Neither Hezbollah nor Israel have an interest in extending the conflict, writes the Kleine Zeitung:
“In Tehran's strategy, Hezbollah is supposed to pose a constant threat to Israel, tie up Israeli military capacities and, in an emergency, help defend Iran against Israel and the US. Sending Hezbollah troops and missiles into a war forced on it by Israel now contradicts this. ... A ground offensive deep in Lebanon would pose a risk for Israel - especially as long as its army continues to fight in Gaza. So for the time being Israel and Hezbollah are likely to continue fighting along the Lebanese border with artillery, drones and missiles.”
There can be no talk of a precision strike
Hämeen Sanomat criticises the attacker was willing to accept civilian casualties:
“They say that in a hybrid war anything is possible. But given enough bad faith and ruthlessness, others could follow Israel's example. ... The most appalling aspect of the attack was its indiscriminate nature. It didn't just target Hezbollah members but everyone in the vicinity at the time of the explosion. This only adds to the bitterness of the victims.”
Proportionality is key
If it is proven beyond doubt that Israel was behind the attack, there are many open questions, writes Dagens Nyheter:
“Was it a proportionate operation that complies with international law? There is no doubt that civilians were among the victims. Nevertheless, an attack of this kind is still preferable to both the indiscriminate violence in Gaza and the constant missile strikes by Hezbollah. Like Hamas, Hezbollah is an Islamist terrorist organisation at war with Israel, and wants to destroy it. Israel has the right to defend itself. But the means used for that defence must be appropriate for a nation that calls itself the only democracy in the Middle East. This was valid before October 2023 and it is still valid today.”
A fiasco even from a strategic perspective
This was a huge mistake, De Standaard is convinced:
“According to human rights experts, the pager offensive can only be described as a violation of the laws of war and an act of terrorism. ... For Israel's traditional allies in Europe and the US, it is no longer possible to explain why the privileged relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu's government should be maintained any longer. ... From a military-strategic point of view the pager war is also a fiasco. ... Emotions will not lead to peace efforts but to armed retaliation and escalation.”