Will the ceasefire bring peace to Lebanon?
Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire for an initial period of 60 days. Both sides must now withdraw their units from southern Lebanon, with the Unifil peacekeeping force and the Lebanese army taking over the task of protecting the border area with Israel. Europe's media greet the agreement with relief but also scepticism.
Not just for the sake of peace
Libération looks at the motives behind the move:
“The pressure to achieve a ceasefire was immense. And frankly, it suits everyone. Joe Biden, who threw all his weight into it, sees it as a way to end his presidency on a high note. Emmanuel Macron, who has also worked to end this war, gets to polish up his image which has been tarnished by the political chaos in France. The Israeli army can breathe a little easier and Hezbollah is counting its remaining fighters. And Benjamin Netanyahu suddenly finds that France is saying he has immunity from arrest warrants issued by the ICCfor war crimes – what a coincidence!”
We've been here before
Népszava is pessimistic:
“It would be a small miracle if the ceasefire holds for the planned 60 days. Large sections of the Lebanese population are celebrating the truce as a victory for Hezbollah, and the return of displaced people has begun. But the people in northern Israel are still waiting ... Their fears are justified: since 2006 there has been a UN resolution for keeping Hezbollah away from Israel's border, preventing it from arming itself and guaranteeing this with a UN peacekeeping force and the Lebanese army. The result: the terrorist organisation has become the most frightening force in the Middle East right under the peacekeepers' noses. What guarantees are there that things will be any different this time?”
Power vacuum in Lebanon
Berlingske worries that the Lebanese state will be too weak:
“The fact that Israel has now crushed much of Hezbollah's political and military power in the country raises hopes that the terrorist movement has lost so much power that the Lebanese government now has a historic opportunity to contain it. But the fact that the Lebanese are fed up with Hezbollah does not guarantee that the Lebanese government is strong enough to keep the Iran-backed militia in check in the long term. The weak Lebanese government has had no influence on security in Lebanon for decades. It will be necessary to keep an eye on developments - and the Israelis will certainly do this as well.”
Little hope for Gaza
Hospodářské noviny considers it unlikely that the truce will have a positive impact on the situation in the Gaza Strip:
“The current Israeli government, and probably also the future US administration under Donald Trump, have other plans. Unlike the Palestinian Gaza Strip, Lebanon is an internationally recognised sovereign state whose territories Israel does not want to occupy in the long term. As far as Gaza is concerned, a ceasefire is complicated by the fact that there is no agreement on the future organisation of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government does not want Fatah, which controls the West Bank, to also govern Gaza.”
At the last minute
Even if the ceasefire is only a reprieve for now it is still important, emphasises Ilta-Sanomat:
“For Lebanon, the ceasefire comes at the last minute. If no agreement is reached or if it doesn't hold, Lebanon could collapse as a state. ... The ceasefire is a temporary solution because it will last 60 days, as was announced in the run-up to the agreement. Pessimistic observers see it as a brief respite. But that is also a good thing. The suffering continues. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are living in makeshift shelters, tents and even on the streets among the rubble. It's a hard fate in the cold and rain of the approaching winter.”
No long-term solution without Iran
Reaching an agreement with Hezbollah simply isn't sufficient, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
“On paper, Israel had already been assured by UN Resolution 1701 that Hezbollah would keep out of its border area. But the Shiite militia couldn't care less about that and brazenly positioned its missile arsenal under the noses of UN observers. ... A long-term solution? That would only be possible in Tehran. But the regime there is hardly going to voluntarily give up the regional leverage that shadow armies like Hezbollah give it.”
Winners, losers and rubble
La Stampa takes a closer look at the deal:
“Beirut breathes a sigh of relief, Gaza sinks into the abyss. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon leaves winners, losers and rubble. The course of Donald Trump, who called on Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war before his inauguration on 20 January, is winning out. 'King Bibi' will receive his reward: the green light for new settlements in the West Bank the size of which will depend on his skills as a negotiator and manipulator. ... Hezbollah will be forced to retreat to the north, behind the Litani River. But it will retain a last remnant of its missile arsenal and preserve its prestige in Lebanon's political balance.”
Israel only appearing to be conciliatory
The deal is a farewell gift to US President Joe Biden, says eldiario.es:
“The agreement now reached is similar to the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, which failed to bring peace. ... Israel is clear on the fact that it cannot achieve a definitive victory right now. ... The deal also has to do with Joe Biden. The US president wants to end his term in office with a positive outcome and is exerting sustained pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu. ... The latter knows that it is in his interest to appear conciliatory in order to secure the support of the US. Otherwise, Biden could end up allowing the UN Security Council to pass a resolution that restricts Israel's ability to react to future developments in Lebanon.”
One war less – but will that help Gaza?
The ceasefire is a rare bit of good news in global affairs, writes The Economist:
“A regional war that seemed to be inexorably growing will now shrink. American officials used to say the way to end the crisis in Lebanon was to get a deal in Gaza. Now they hope the Lebanon deal will help solve Gaza instead. ... For more than a year, Hezbollah insisted it would not stop fighting Israel until Israel stopped fighting in Gaza. Israel has now broken the link between the two fronts. That will take some of the pressure off its overstretched army. By ending one war, Mr Netanyahu may make it easier to continue the other.”