Government crisis in France: what comes next?
France's government is facing two no-confidence motions which are expected to be put to vote in parliament today, Wednesday. If the left-wing opposition parties and the right-wing populist RN vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier's cabinet, President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new head of government, whose parliamentary majority could again be uncertain. Commentators observe the situation with concern.
Grasp the seriousness of the situation
For the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung it's clear that Macron alone is not responsible for all his country's problems:
“Rather, the entire political elite must ask itself whether it has grasped the seriousness of the situation. France is sitting on Europe's highest mountain of debt and needs to make cutbacks in order to preserve some budgetary leeway and not gamble away the dented confidence of rating agencies and bond markets. There has been no shortage of warning shots. And one thing is also clear: in the coming months, France's ability to act will be even more limited than it already is. This is bad news for Europe, which should actually be worrying about other things in view of the geopolitical challenges.”
RN cutting off its nose to spite its face
The Rassemblement National's plan to bring down the Barnier government by voting in favour of the motion of no confidence tabled by the left is damaging the party, lawyer Jean-Philippe Derosier argues in Le Nouvel Obs:
“The appointment of a new prime minister and a new government would significantly curb Marine Le Pen's party's influence. Right now, everyone realises that the future of the government lies in her hands, since it can only stay in power thanks to her goodwill. She is playing this card well by raising the stakes. If a new government is appointed in the near future, whether on a joint (undoubtedly more left-wing) basis or as a 'technical' government, her influence would be severely limited, if not reduced to zero.”
The markets know better
To Vima analyses the situation in France based on Greece's experiences with the debt crisis:
“According to psychologists, the first stage of a negative situation is refusing to accept how difficult it is. In this stage, people interpret all events as if they posed no problem. But the 'damned' markets know better. ... And once you lose control of the situation and leave it to the markets, there is rarely any turning back. Even if you are the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, mighty France. Data from the Banque de France shows that Japanese investors have been selling French bonds en masse in the last few days and seeking safer havens.”
Europe's democratic forces are called upon to act
The French crisis could not come at a worse time for the European Union, writes El Periódico de Catalunya:
“Shortly before Donald Trump takes office and with Germany heading for elections. ... In a Europe that is losing competitiveness and struggling to innovate, the economic and political difficulties that the two poles of the Franco-German axis are experiencing are terrible news. The French crisis is also a burden for Ursula von der Leyen's new European Commission. ... In this situation, the major political forces that have supported the EU – the socialists, the people's parties, the liberals and the Greens – should reflect on how to combat the populism that threatens their continued existence.”
Disastrous for the economy
Michel de Rosen, chairman of the board of France's largest automotive supplier Forvia, warns in Les Echos of the effects of a government collapse:
“Interest rates would rise. The financial markets are worried about France. They don't know which way our country is headed. ... France's attractiveness would decline. In recent years, since 2015, France has become more attractive to foreign investors. ... But since the dissolution of parliament, investors have been asking themselves: should they invest elsewhere? Should they wait and see if France remains hospitable? Some projects have already been cancelled, others have been scaled back or postponed. The fall of the Barnier government would only fuel this spiral of mistrust.”
Containment strategy didn't work
France's president has displayed a lack of foresight, the website In writes:
“To the extent that Macron chose not to form a government around the Nouveau Front populaire, the left-wing coalition that won the most seats in parliament, Barnier's government relies on the support of the Rassemblement National. In other words, the choices made by Macron – who called for legislative elections ostensibly in response to the far right's impressive showing in the European elections – have essentially made the far right the arbiter of political developments. ... Which obviously suits the far right to a tee, because it can prepare for the 2027 presidential elections while at the same time telling its supporters that its pressure has yielded concrete results.”
Le Pen plunging the country into a black hole
The former RN leader is behaving irresponsibly, criticises Le Figaro:
“Le Pen always wanted more, even at the risk of ruining her victory. Now she has chosen to bring down Michel Barnier's government, and in so doing she will plunge France into great political and financial uncertainty. She is exposing the weakest citizens to the mechanical effects of a makeshift budget. She is opening the door to the office of prime minister for the Socialists, something which her voters won't be happy about. ... We need a budget and some stability. Marine Le Pen has chosen adventurous schisms over the advantages of calm strength. She has multiplied her red lines at the risk of plunging France into a black hole.”
Don't forget the voters' message
Barnier could be tempted to make further concessions to the right-wing populists, Libération warns:
“The prime minister seems to forget that he is only in Matignon because of a very specific result in the legislative elections in July. And what was the main message of those elections? The massive rejection of a government that includes the RN. ... With the formation of an impressive Republican front, millions of left-wing voters cast their ballots for right-wing candidates and millions of right-wing voters for left-wing candidates. The leader of the teetering majority should therefore, as promised, take the opinion of the left into account in order to obtain majorities for his proposals, instead of bowing to the RN.”
Potentially a cold political calculation
The figurehead of the Rassemblement National may have her own personal reasons for choosing this course, La Stampa speculates:
“Marine Le Pen is accused of embezzling European Parliament funds and faces a five-year prison sentence and a five-year ban on standing for political office. The sentence is expected in the spring and could prevent her from running in the 2027 presidential elections. By provoking a parliamentary crisis and preventing the formation of a new government, she may be hoping to provoke a political crisis (Emmanuel Macron cannot dissolve parliament before June of next year) by calling for the resignation of the current head of state and the convening of a snap presidential election in the coming months.”
The moral of the story
Macron has only himself to blame for the dilemma, La Repubblica says:
“Perhaps, if one is permitted to draw a lesson at such a dramatic moment, his excess of programmatic Europeanism, coupled with a lack of pragmatic Europeanism, has ultimately turned against him. If he had succeeded in realising at least some of the projects he announced, if he had really dared to share with his allies the military and nuclear supremacy he wields in Europe, France and Europe themselves would not be reduced to this pitiful state today.”