Trump threatens Putin: can he force through a deal?
In his inaugural speech, US President Trump remained silent on the subject of the war in Ukraine. Now he has addressed Vladimir Putin on Truth Social: "STOP this ridiculous war!" If a solution isn't found soon he would have to impose "high taxes, tariffs and sanctions" on Russian exports, he said. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has given his negotiator Keith Kellogg 100 days to broker a deal.
Dragging the Kremlin out of Beijing's orbit
In LRT, political scientist Alvydas Medalinskas sees Trump's approach to the Ukraine issue as driven by his goal of putting China in its place:
“He could offer Ukraine more support than Biden - but only if Putin counters Trump's efforts to be perceived as a globally recognised peacemaker and reach a peace agreement this year. On the other hand, Putin could win Trump's favour if he were prepared to distance himself from China. In the new world order envisioned by Trump, international politics resembles a set of scales. Whoever adapts to Trump's vision or can convincingly show how important their own policies are for this vision will receive US support. But anyone who does not fit into this picture - whether or not they are an ally - must expect difficulties.”
Bull in china shop diplomacy
La Stampa is appalled by the way Trump is pressuring Putin:
“If the new US president's diplomacy follows the same line as his post, in which he called on Vladimir Putin to 'stop this ridiculous war', saying that 'it's only going to get worse if we don't make a deal, and soon', even starting negotiations won't be easy. Attempting to initiate negotiations by threatening new sanctions and tariffs is not an accommodating approach, but publicly calling on Vladimir Putin to give in and stop the invasion of Ukraine as 'a very big favor' is only likely to prompt a 'nyet'. It's difficult to say whether or with whom Trump consulted, but his message seems to be written in exactly the terms that the Russian leader will not be able to accept.”
Putin can sell Trump's decrees as a victory
In a Facebook post, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov says Putin can use the change of values that Trump is imposing as an argument for ending the Ukraine war:
“Putin can't afford to come home without a victory. In this respect, Trump's decision that the US authorities will only recognise two genders - male and female - as well as his other steps to combat 'inclusivity and diversity' could play a positive role. As we know, Russia cites the West's 'tolerance' as a justification for the war. ... On this score, the conflict has been settled. The West has 'recognised its mistakes', it is 'correcting its course' and 'Russia has proved its point'. Russian domestic propaganda could use these arguments to explain a de-escalation.”
Russia's defeat also in the US's interest
Aftonbladet does not believe that Trump will go against the European position:
“Donald Trump has refrained from attacking Europe since taking office on Monday. He has even hinted that he might lower the tariffs if Europe simply buys more US oil and gas. As far as the war in Ukraine is concerned, it is still in the interests of the US for Russia to lose - for reasons of prestige, but also because a Russian victory would strengthen China. And the Nato countries have cautiously agreed that it would be good to increase the target for national defence spending to three to five percent of GDP. ... But if there is one lesson to be learnt from Trump's last term in office, it is that things can change quickly.”
Armaments boom justifies further support for Kyiv
Economically, Trump and his entourage benefit from the West standing with Ukraine, Spotmedia explains:
“Russia's war has led to a boom in the defence industry across Europe, as well as in the US, Japan and Australia. Suddenly, arms companies have been flooded with orders and money from Western countries that had finally understood the threat of war and agreed to a rapid increase in their defence budgets. Since World War II there has not been such broad public support for spending money on defence. Donald Trump is a pragmatic leader. He is surrounded by tech billionaires and backed by the defence industry lobby. The fact that defence is booming is an opportunity that investors certainly don't want to miss.”