Ukraine war: will Moscow agree to a ceasefire?
As Russia's war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, all eyes are on how it will react to the joint peace proposal presented by Washington and Kyiv. A high-level US delegation is heading to Moscow to negotiate a deal this week. Meanwhile, on Wednesday Putin visited the front in Kursk, where Russian troops are reclaiming territory occupied by Ukraine. Europe's press takes stock of the situation.
Ball is in Trump's court
Only the US president can bring the Kremlin chief to his senses, says Kurier:
“Is the ball really in the Russians' court now, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says? ... From a military point of view, Vladimir Putin probably sees no reason to agree to a ceasefire now. So the ball is in Donald Trump's court. Only he can put Putin under pressure and make him agree to a ceasefire that is unfavourable from his point of view. There's the Kellogg plan, for example, according to which Ukraine would be flooded with US weapons. Or massive economic sanctions against Russia, which would primarily affect Moscow's oil and gas exports. Putin will always go as far as he is allowed to go - and Trump is currently letting him.”
Stress the costs of failure
The US and Europe should up the pressure on Moscow, writes The Daily Telegraph:
“Some of this pressure could be applied through further military aid, stepping up deliveries and broadening the range of capabilities offered to the armed forces of Ukraine. But perhaps the most sensitive pressure-point available to Western leaders is mercantile: applying the full force of sanctions to nations which have helped Putin escape the economic chokehold applied to his nation. ... As US negotiators head to Moscow, the costs of failing to reach a deal should be made clear.”
Kursk could be a decisive factor
In a Telegram post picked up by Echo, journalist Dmitry Kolesev sees the chances of an agreement increasing due to developments on the front line:
“In recent days Russian troops have managed to make advances in the Kursk region and enter the Ukrainian-occupied town of Sudzha (which they now seem to have completely under their control). This increases the chances of a ceasefire, as Putin at least won't have to bargain for the Kursk region, which would have meant a loss of face for him. Putin himself may not yet be sure how to react, and could be waiting for a new conversation with Trump. Although there are many indications that he will reject the ceasefire proposal (or try to sabotage it), I still think it possible that the Kremlin will agree to it. Because striking a deal with Trump is the big win Putin is hoping for.”
Russia needs peace
Moscow also needs an agreement, Gazeta Wyborcza argues:
“The mood is pessimistic, because Russia needs peace. Its economy suffers from a sort of autoimmune disease under war conditions. In the fierce competition for workers, resources and funds between what is 'for the front' and what is for the civilian sector, the latter is losing out, which is having an increasingly detrimental impact on people's living standards.”
Don't take Putin at his word
El Mundo warns against naivety:
“Ukraine had little room for manoeuvre and has gone for the best option: to use Trump's power to its advantage. By accepting his plan unconditionally it is forcing the US government to convince Moscow now. Trump is putting his image as the all-powerful world leader on the line. However, maximum mistrust is called for. ... Russia could use a ceasefire to buy time and secure the occupied territories. Moscow could use the agreement as a trap to reinforce its army and regain the international position it lost after the invasion. ... Putin could violate all the agreements again, as he did with the Minsk Agreement when he invaded Ukraine again in 2022.”
Key question yet to be resolved
The positions of Russia and Ukraine still diverge enormously, Ilta-Sanomat points out:
“The crucial question is what Russia will demand of Ukraine in the actual peace talks. The demands will undoubtedly be tough, starting with territorial concessions. ... Putin is still seeking to subordinate Ukraine to his interests and hold on to the territories he has occupied. President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, drew a red line on Wednesday, which he described as his main demand in the negotiations: Ukraine will never recognise the occupied territories as part of Russia. So the positions of the parties to the conflict are still light years apart.”
Key questions left open
It remains unclear how Ukraine's security is to be guaranteed, notes Lidové noviny:
“In all likelihood, without major territorial concessions Russia will not accept a ceasefire - or this ceasefire won't last long. At the same time, the problem is that Ukraine needs guarantees that the Russia leadership will not attack it again, but the Americans are refusing to give such guarantees. The only option that remains is some kind of European guarantee or the possibility of arming Ukraine so that it is just as strong as Russia. ... The question is whether the Americans will want to invest in something like that.”
Forcing Putin's hand
Political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko describes the Kremlin's tricky situation on Facebook:
“Putin now faces with a dilemma: Ukraine or Trump? Only yesterday he was probably hoping to get both - to persuade Ukraine to capitulate with the help of Trump, to gradually regain control of Ukraine and at the same time to reach an agreement with Trump on various tactical and possibly also strategic issues. Now he has to make a decision. ... If he still wants a tactical-strategic alliance with Trump in order to strengthen his geopolitical position and reduce his dependence on China, then he has to agree to the ceasefire and give up his intention of forcing Ukraine to capitulate.”
Diplomatic success for the Ukrainian delegation
Political scientist Alyona Getmanchuk summarises on Facebook:
“In my view, Ukraine had two interconnected key tasks in Saudi Arabia: first, to demonstrate as convincingly as possible that it is not Ukraine that is blocking peace, but Russia. ... Secondly, to throw the diplomatic ball to the Russian side of the field, by presenting our own proposals, a proactive vision and a willingness on our part to agree to a ceasefire. The initial information and statements from Jeddah and the reports on the resumption of military assistance and the exchange of intelligence show that the Ukrainian delegation has successfully completed these two tasks.”
Unacceptable in its current form
A statement from the state-run news agency Ria Novosti indicates how the leadership in Moscow sees the situation:
“How we return the diplomatic ball will determine Russia's skill in this particular diplomatic discipline. We must be clever and hit it back to Ukraine in such a way that Zelensky again becomes an obstacle to Trump's Nobel Prize. There can be no question of Russia accepting the offer from Jeddah in its current form. The West and Ukraine are calling in unison for a halt to hostilities. But they've been singing the same tune since February 2022, and no one has the right to act as if they haven't heard that Russia has its own terms: the elimination of the reasons for the start of the 'special military operation' [the term prescribed by the Kremlin to designate the war against Ukraine].”
Poker with many wild cards
Two opposing plans for the reorganisation of the global order are pitched against each other, La Repubblica comments:
“Putin's extreme reserve and Trump's blatant openness mark the unbalanced start of a poker game with unpredictable consequences between the two leaders, precisely because their respective goals are so different. Putin wants to assert Russia's sovereignty over Ukraine to resume the project of creating a sphere of influence along national lines. ... Trump wants to detach Putin from Beijing and make the deal on Ukraine the driving force behind a new international order. ... Putin and Trump embody two ambitious projects for the reorganisation of international security which at the moment seem entirely incompatible.”
Insults are part of the game for Trump
The BBC looks back at the clash between Trump and Zelensky just a few days before the new show of unity and notes:
“That US and Ukrainian diplomats were able to improve relations and chart a path forward serves as another illustration of how Trump, despite his apparent bluster and willingness to hurl insults, always appears open to further negotiations. For him, in fact, the swagger and browbeating are often an integral part of the negotiating process.”