Ukraine war: why are the negotiations stalling?
The US-led talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine are in crisis: Donald Trump has declared that he is "very angry" and "pissed off" at Putin after the latter stipulated the lifting of sanctions and new elections in Ukraine under UN supervision as preconditions. And Kyiv, for its part, has rejected a new draft agreement on economic cooperation with the US as unacceptable. The media discuss the chances of a ceasefire.
Russian good cop, bad cop tactics
Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, who visited Washington this week, is the good cop in Putin's game, writes sociologist Igor Eidman on Facebook:
“His job is to reassure the Americans and seduce them once again with fairy tales about the billions to be made in Russia if they are friends with Putin. ... The US president will again start raving about Putin's desire for peace. And then the various parties will have 'trifling matters' to discuss again - namely, the details of the agreement. And who will the Kremlin send to the negotiations with the Americans then? The two old Chekists, the bad cops Karassin and Beseda, who - yep, you guessed it - will chant Putin's ultimatums for hours on end.”
The Kremlin has time on its side
Avvenire explains why the Russian president is taking his time:
“Putin is not afraid, no one is holding him accountable, and no one is restricting his actions. It should therefore come as no surprise that, despite Trump's anger and Zelensky's jibes, Putin is putting the brakes on, sidestepping negotiating proposals and, above all, being careful not to commit on the main issue - a ceasefire and an end to the attacks. Right now he's not so interested in gaining another three to five percent of Ukraine's territory. He simply wants to exploit other people's problems to get the best deal. ... He will only really take a seat at the negotiating table once he is sure that he can't achieve more than he already has.”
Zelensky betting on new support
In a Telegram post picked up by Echo, political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov points to arguments in favour of the Ukrainians dragging out the negotiations:
“The calculation is simple: 'sit out the storm' and buy time, either to replace the US with Europe as a war sponsor or to wait for the US to return to a pro-Ukrainian course (because there is an illusion that this back-and-forth won't last long). This is a respectable position, which the Ukrainian people no doubt support, but it comes at a price. Namely, that it's a gamble with high stakes. If the bet on 'Europe's rising up' or a 'cured US' fails, Zelensky will end up with the worst possible peace deal - and Putin will get the best.”
Only weapons work with Putin
Words alone won't be enough, writes journalist and member of parliament Mykola Kniazhytskyi in a Facebook post picked up by gazeta.ua:
“The new US administration's threats to 'tighten sanctions' in reaction to being 'disappointed' by Putin can't stop the war. They can't even motivate the Russians to agree to a temporary ceasefire. The actions and statements of members of the Trump team show that they really want to end this war as quickly as possible. But if that's the case, increasing the supply of weapons and war equipment to Ukraine is the only way to achieve this. Only these tactics will make Putin doubt his victory and actually sit down at the negotiating table.”