What's the deal with the US-Ukrainian minerals deal?
Ukraine and the United States may sign a framework agreement on the joint development and export of Ukrainian mineral resources such as oil, gas, uranium, coal and rare earths this Friday. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, who is visiting Washington today, the deal doesn't include US security guarantees. The media weigh up the pros, cons and motives of both sides.
A win-win situation for now
Both sides can benefit from this agreement, Sydsvenskan surmises:
“In plain language, it means that Ukraine's future security could be based on the fact that peace and stability in Ukraine are advantageous for the US. Not pretty, not moral, but perhaps functional. Because self-interest, as we know, does not lie. Moreover, both Trump and Zelensky have 'won' - at least in this first phase. Trump by showing the American people that they are getting something in return for their war billions; Zelensky by refusing to sign the first agreement, which would have given the US control over Ukrainian raw materials, assets and infrastructure.”
Part of a global battle
Večer, on the other hand, sees Ukraine as a victim of the US's attempt to overtake China in the raw materials sector:
“This is clearly the beginning of an open geostrategic mega-battle between the major powers for control over crucial raw materials. Donald Trump is targeting Greenland and Canada for the same reason. ... China has the largest reserves of this kind, Russia, Greenland and Canada also have significant reserves, and Ukraine also has quite a lot. ... Through his combination of aggressive negotiations, aggressive statements on territorial claims and military power, Trump wants to strengthen the US's supremacy in the world.”
The ball is in Ukraine's court
Ukrainian diplomat and former deputy foreign minister Lana Zerkal describes the deal as an opportunity for Ukraine in a Facebook post republished by NV:
“We can already say with certainty that this is not blackmail and that we are not giving away our natural resources to the US. It's clearly a PR move on both sides. But whether this deal can become a catalyst for development and change for Ukraine - a kind of Marshall Plan - depends above all on us. We need to be clear about what we want to develop with the help of US technology, capital and expertise. We are the ones who need to have a strategy for how to make the most of the proposed format and use it to promote, first and foremost, our own interests. And yes, the Americans will also benefit from our potential success - as they always do.”
Cynically exploiting desperation
For the Salzburger Nachrichten, Ukraine will have no choice but to agree to a bad offer:
“It's a cynical deal. Donald Trump's entire behaviour is geared towards benefiting the US or hurting China - preferably both at once. ... For the Ukrainians, the deal is an act of desperation. They have no choice at all. Ukraine will be finished without US support. The draft does not include the security guarantees demanded by Zelensky and the deal deprives Kyiv of funds for reconstruction. All it offers is the chance to keep the Americans on side - and even that is only a hope.”
Back to colonialism
Trump sees Ukraine only as a debtor, complains Ilta-Sanomat:
“During the three years of the war the United States has been Ukraine's main supporter. But this support began to falter in Congress under President Joe Biden. Even so, however, there was no talk of repayment. For Trump, Ukraine is not a defender of Western freedom but a debtor. Trump's blackmail looks like a return to the days of colonialism. Back then, the big countries saw the small countries merely as a source of raw materials. It is also not in Finland's interest to return to that mindset.”
The best it can get for now
The agreement represents the best security guarantee available to Ukraine right now, Rzeczpospolita counters:
“It's hard to imagine that in a threatening scenario the US would give up its investments there without a fight, as such investments will cost US taxpayers many billions of dollars (because the Ukrainian mineral deposits not only need to be explored to determine their quantity and quality, but also extracted). And every future US president will defend these investments. Ukraine has no other security guarantees, and the door to Nato is likely to remain closed for years to come.”
All just hot air
In economic terms the deal is senseless, energy commodities expert Mikhail Krutikhin writes in a Telegram post republished by Echo:
“For many reasons, no one will seriously invest money in the extraction of all this selenium, praseodymium and lithium. Both Kyiv and Moscow have realised that they can do Trump a favour (expecting a favour in return) by signing this shrill score for trumpets and timpani. All of Trump's foreign policy endeavours in the first month of his presidency have gone up in smoke. ... So far his public has received nothing solid - but they're so eager to offer it something. This, and only this, is the entire content of the rare earth deal, which make no commercial sense whatsoever.”
Blackmailed into a bad peace
The minerals deal is a testament to the madness of today's powerful, author and Volkskrant columnist Tommy Wieringa concludes:
“The difference between the Marshall Plan aid of yesteryear and the plundering of raw materials today is the clearest sign of how America's character has been deformed. Ukraine is being blackmailed into a bad peace deal that lacks even the most basic security guarantees. In Riyadh, authoritarianism rules over the fate of the free world. There is nothing good about this corrupt assembly, everything is predatory and moral decay. Occasionally, I wish there was a special place in hell where this kind of people could be roasted until the end of time, preferably on a low flame, fuelled by their own oil and gas reserves.”