What is happening in Lebanon?

Commenting in France Inter, columnist Pierre Haski sees reasons for Iran's restraint:

“Tehran is sending surprising signals of appeasement. ... The explanation is simple: the Iranian regime is already accused by the West of providing military support to Russia; it is facing a fragile internal situation two years after the death of Mahsa Amini and the start of the women's revolt; and it does not want to risk a confrontation that would destroy its efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. Deterrence is working. Will Iran sacrifice Hezbollah at the risk of losing some of its regional credibility? That's the big question, but above all Iran wants to save Iran – even at the cost of Lebanese blood.”

Večernji list points out:

“Military analysts believe that a ground offensive would be costly for Israel because Hezbollah has been preparing for such a scenario for 20 years. ... In the event of a full-blown war, the Israeli army would be forced to fight on Hezbollah's territory, where its technical and intelligence superiority would be of little use. ... Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of missiles, drones and anti-tank rockets that it can use to thwart the advance of Israeli forces.”

Hezbollah and its leader are losing support, The Economist explains:

“In the past two weeks Israel has dealt Hezbollah the harshest blow in the group's four-decade history. Mr Nasrallah seems at a loss for how to proceed. ... Mr Nasrallah has never been so isolated. He has lost many trusted lieutenants. ... Those who remain are probably suspects: Israel could not have carried out extensive sabotage and assassinations without inside help. ... Among the wider population, many are furious with Mr Nasrallah for dragging the country into a fight he cannot win.”

For the Lebanese newspaper L'Orient-Le Jour, the situation is as follows:

“The perversity of the ultra-right government at Israel's helm no longer needs to be proven, because the explosive pagers already proved it beyond doubt. The weakness of official Lebanon means the country is an overripe fruit just waiting to be picked, and the international community, which barely reacted when Azerbaijan occupied Armenia, won't prevent Israel from doing this. However, it must be conceded that Hezbollah developed on the basis of identitarian uncertainties and sectarian conflicts in a country that is too weak to impose itself militarily and too fragmented to make its voice heard in the concert of nations.”

According to Evrensel, the major fear in Lebanon is that Israel plans to

“create a buffer zone that extends into Lebanese territory. Within this framework, there's talk of the possibility of Israel launching a ground offensive in Lebanon and forcing the Lebanese living in the border region to leave their country. While these scenarios are being discussed, the hands of Lebanese politicians are tied. Since the 2019 banking crisis Lebanon's economy has been on the rocks, the presidency has been vacant for more than 600 days, the government is provisional and the state institutions are on the verge of collapse. Naturally, this escalation has alarmed all the countries in the region, but no one is in a position to counter the process.”

Israel and Lebanon are both at a dead end, observes columnist Pierre Haski in France Inter:

“None of the actors in this dangerous confrontation has a real strategy. Hezbollah is playing its role as Iran's spearhead in the Middle East - which requires a military posture rather than diplomacy. But a posture is not a strategy. For its part, the Israeli government doesn't want to give in to US pressure to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. ... Israel captured the whole world's attention with its adventure-movie-like operation 'explosive pagers' but is having problems demonstrating that its security would somehow be strengthened by another war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. So this is a total impasse.”

Público calls on the international community to stand up to Israel:

“It's almost absurd to place Israel on the side of terrorism knowing how often Israelis have been the target of this perverse combination of violence and fanaticism that is blind to innocent victims. But both here [in Lebanon] and in Gaza, the Israeli authorities have displayed a cruelty that testifies to the absence of a moral compass. ... It is Israel that is doing everything it can to provoke a new war in Lebanon and rule out any possibility of a negotiated solution. ... The international community must not ally itself with those who systematically violate its laws and prefer to wage war to resolve conflicts.”

Der Standard questions the rationale behind Israel's military strikes against Hezbollah:

“The dilemma facing every Israeli government is that even after a ground offensive - and there have been many - Hezbollah will never be so weak that it cannot re-emerge as a threat. Just the opposite is the case: it was Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon that paved the way for its rise. This time too, Israel's actions may be legitimate, but they are not necessarily wise.”

The pager attacks have left Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in particular in a very difficult position, says Dagens Nyheter:

“Hezbollah controls Lebanon. It has turned its weapons on Lebanese opponents when necessary. But it avoids internal violence at all costs and exercises its power through its political alliances, mainly through various Christian and Druze groups. Hezbollah has justified the presence of its armed forces by claiming that it is defending the country against Israel and supporting the Palestinians. For this to be credible, Hezbollah must ensure that it can defend Lebanon when things get tough, and not just fend off [individual] Israeli attacks on the country.”

Evrensel criticises the fact that the pager explosions have enhanced Israel's image:

“For days, Israeli propaganda was fuelled by praise of Israel's superior intelligence and technological capabilities. But this much-vaunted intelligence operation and technology was a war crime. If this topic is to be discussed in the media, the position should be that Israel has committed a new war crime that should be condemned, that we as an international community should take a united stance against those who commit war crimes, and that those who commit war crimes should unquestionably be brought to justice. Killing people with high-tech methods is not to be praised, but condemned.”

The daily newspaper Estia sees new challenges for the EU member states in the eastern Mediterranean region:

“Greece and Cyprus are facing significant geopolitical and migration risks. Following Israeli minister Yoav Gallant's statements that the war will now move to Lebanon, it is highly likely that Greece and Cyprus will take in a wave of refugees from that country over the winter. The second threat is of a geopolitical nature. Greece and Cyprus have set up Western bases on their territory but they do not yet have a protective shield against missiles that could be fired at them.”