Middle East: a major war in the offing?
Israel's airstrikes and ground offensive in Lebanon continue, and it has also carried out its first airstrike in the West Bank in several years. At the same time Hezbollah is firing missiles at Israeli territory. It remains unclear how Israel will react to Iran's ballistic missile attacks on Tuesday. Europe's press discusses the potential consequences of direct military action by Israel against the Islamic Republic.
Iran's big mistake
Israel now has the moral right to take offensive action against Tehran, film director Alexander Rodnyansky writes in Gordonua.com:
“The Iranian leadership has clearly made a terrible mistake. A forced one: they couldn't but respond to the assassination of Hezbollah leaders and the strike against the Houthis in Yemen - after all, they are 'responsible for those they tame'. But this was a big mistake. Israel has gained the moral and legal right to act. It can now destroy Iran's nuclear programme, its oil terminals and seaports. It can deal a severe blow to the terrorist regime.”
Israel needs support
A weakened Iranian regime would be in everyone's interest, Weekendavisen stresses:
“Israel's showdown with Iran shows once again that we in the West have no strategy for ridding the Iranians and the rest of the world of the havoc wrought by clerical rule. ... We should take seriously Israel's years of warning that Iranian nukes would become the regime's life insurance, as has been the case with North Korea. It is in Israel's interest, our country's and the Iranian people's that this nuclear programme be significantly weakened. Iran has proven to be a paper tiger. ... Israel is doing a tough job and needs all the help we can give it.”
Escalation won't even help Netanyahu
Habertürk warns:
“As Israel's previous leaders have already seen from their own experience, and as Netanyahu will realise one day, bombing and massacres achieve nothing. ... History will also teach Netanyahu a lesson. This military action, which he believes will be victorious, will bring Israel more insecurity than the security it seeks.”
Fragile hopes of peace
Harsh Israeli action is problematic from a humanitarian point of view but could be good in the long term, Sydsvenskan comments:
“There are reports of many civilian casualties in Lebanon, and there will be more if the war continues or spreads. Israel bears a responsibility in this densely populated country. The death toll in Gaza is also rising daily. But people outside Israel, in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East, are delighted that the Iranian regime's reign of terror is being challenged. Alongside the fear of a major war, hopes for change, peace and freedom are being kindled. This should terrify the leadership in Tehran more than anything else.”
A global security threat
To Vima takes stock of the repercussions beyond the Middle East:
“The price of oil has risen (and will soar if Iran's oil facilities are hit), and the impact of any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, where the Tehran regime is enriching uranium to build a nuclear bomb, is unforeseeable. An expansion of the war would trigger a wave of refugees to Europe which would make the 2015 crisis seem trivial in comparison. More than a million people are estimated to be fleeing Lebanon, more than 100,000 of whom have fled to Syria. This is a war that endangers global security and will have an impact on everyone's daily life.”
The EU must take a clear stance
In Europe there is a glaring lack of consensus on how to proceed in the Middle East, The Guardian admonishes:
“After months of division on the question of a ceasefire in Gaza, the EU is in agreement that there should be one, but hardly any members are willing to do anything about it - for instance, by suspending arms sales to Israel. ... At the UN general assembly, where the vast majority of countries worldwide backed a resolution supporting the international court of justice's opinion demanding Israel's compliance with international law in the occupied Palestinian territory, Europe's show was pitiful once again: 13 countries voted in favour, 12 abstained and two - Hungary and the Czech Republic - voted against the resolution.”
Ball in the court of the Arab states
HuffPost Greece knows who could make a difference:
“Perhaps it's time for the Arab world to take its fate into its own hands and for the countries that have some clout in the region (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar) to take a formal, open stance and attempt to lay the groundwork for a new reality across the entire Middle East. Because it seems that none of the parties directly involved (Hamas, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, the Houthis) are willing to sit down at the table and put an end to the cycle of violence.”
Tehran's hardliners up the stakes
Iran is risking a major war in the Middle East, Die Presse writes:
“The Iranian leadership knew full well that an Israeli response would follow. But after the Israeli air strike in Beirut in which Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and apparently also a high-ranking Iranian officer were killed, the hardliners in the regime were no longer willing to wait. Their thirst for revenge had to be quenched. At the same time they feared that after all the successful Israeli operations against their allies they would start to lose face. But now, with their attack on Israel they've raised the stakes in their power game - and that could also prove dangerous for them.”
The mullahs are lashing out
This is a show of weakness rather than strength by Iran, The Daily Telegraph comments:
“Humiliated by the decapitation of their proxy, Hezbollah, the mullahs are lashing out - but they are showing impotence, not strength; incompetence, not skill. ... This feeble, petulant response by Iran is not even in the same league [as Israel's attacks in Lebanon]. All it has achieved, given that it has been launched in response to actions against Hezbollah, is to underline what everybody knows: that we should make no distinction between Iran's proxies and its Revolutionary Guards Corps. Hezbollah is in effect an Iranian army of occupation in Lebanon, and the sooner the people of Lebanon can be liberated from it, the better.”
The showdown is in full swing
The latest developments raise two key questions, says La Repubblica:
“The first concerns Tehran. The decision to fire missiles at Israel has been taken twice in the last five months by the Supreme Leader. ... But does it really represent the will of the entire Shiite regime or does it reveal a strategic weakening of the theocracy, which is grappling with an ailing economy and an unstoppable women's revolt against the hijab? The second question concerns Israel. After putting Hezbollah and Hamas on the defensive for the first time in 18 years, will it seize the opportunity to attack Iranian military bases and nuclear facilities, or will it opt for the de-escalation outgoing US President Joe Biden has called for? ... The showdown between the Jewish state and Shiite Iran is in full swing.”
Madness has free rein
For taz, the war has long since gotten out of control:
“In the past few days there have been Israeli air strikes on Syria and threats against Iran, while Israel has been hit by drone attacks from Yemen, Iraq and other neighbouring states. Radical Islamists are prophesying the imminent self-destruction of Israel - zealots in Israel are distributing maps of a Greater Israel that extends from the Nile to the Iranian border. The madness has free rein. The world is looking on, powerless, as a tragedy unfolds. The end is still open. Soon it could be too late.”
US involvement increasingly likely
Večernji list fears the conflict will escalate:
“Many analysts have warned that the Israeli prime minister's goal is to draw Iran into the conflict and thus provoke US involvement. ... If Iran continues its attacks on Israeli targets and Israel requests military assistance, the US could become actively involved and send military personnel and equipment to Israel. The US army could carry out attacks on Iranian targets and Nato could be called upon to support Israel. US involvement would quickly escalate the conflict, perhaps with global consequences. Iran could respond with attacks on US bases in the region.”
The EU can show leadership
An important task awaits Brussels, NRC explains:
“The US's lack of a clear stance could present an opportunity for the European Union. Opinions about Israel are divided within the EU. But more diplomatic involvement on Europe's part is urgently needed, especially now that the situation in Lebanon is escalating and the drama in Gaza continues. The EU is Israel's largest trading partner and has a little more credibility in the region than the US. By threatening new sanctions and actively applying diplomatic pressure on the main players, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell can do what the US has refrained from doing for years: show leadership.”