Regime change in Syria: migration debate in full swing

In the wake of Assad's fall from power, several European states have suspended asylum proceedings for Syrians and plan to rethink their policies regarding refugees from the country. Around six million people have fled Syria since the outbreak of civil war in 2011. Commentators question whether the conditions for a safe return are in place - and whether this is the debate Europe should be focusing on right now.

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La Stampa (IT) /

Despicable cynicism

La Stampa is incensed:

“The regime of Bashar al-Assad was toppled just 48 hours ago, a jihadist by the name of al-Julani has triumphantly entered Damascus, and what is Europe's first concern? Not the new leader's CV, not the threat of destabilisation in the region. ... No, the big problem in the eyes of the major European states is the Syrian migrants living within our borders. ... In the space of a few hours, the cynicism of the Europeans has wiped out the moment of collective pride that Merkel's famous words 'We can do this' in 2015 represented before the first exodus of Syrians.”

Jutarnji list (HR) /

No one here cares about the Syrians' future

Jutarnji list is struck by the way migration is dominating the public discourse:

“The last thing the EU - and also the US - are interested in is whether democratic values and human rights will be respected post-Assad. And even if they do show interest, it's only because this opens up the possibility of refugees returning to their country and an end to asylum for Syrians. Democratic values and human rights are no longer important foreign policy criteria for the West. While the US says this publicly, the EU may not say it but it shows it with its behaviour. However, if things go wrong in Syria, which is not impossible considering what happened in Afghanistan after the chaotic withdrawal of the US and EU, as well as Libya and parts of Iraq, new chaos in the country cannot be ruled out. And then the EU will also pay the price.”

Dnevnik (SI) /

The first signs are positive

Dnevnik is cautiously optimistic:

“The first day in the new Syria at least didn't bode ill for the future. The assurances of the Islamist HTS that there will be no reprisals against soldiers and officials could be a good start to prevent the post-Assad regime from degenerating into chaos. ... Involving members of the previous regime in the transition could also be promising. The fact that there are long queues of people at Syria's borders waiting to go home is a good indicator of trust and hope. However, it should not be overlooked that the initial euphoria could quickly evaporate. The stories from Libya, Egypt and Tunisia show how fragile societies are after the fall of long-standing tyrants and how quickly they can plunge into a new civil war.”

Der Standard (AT) /

Europe must be patient

War-torn Syria is not yet ready for the return of refugees, writes Der Standard:

“It's true that with the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the original grounds for receiving asylum no longer apply for many recognised refugees. If there really is peace in the country, then subsidiary protection will no longer be needed. But after years of civil war and a catastrophic economic situation many Syrian towns and villages have limited capacity to take in large numbers of returnees. And there are some who need an end to living their lives on the run far more urgently than the Syrians in safe Europe.”

Le Figaro (FR) /

Support for the islamists better than chaos

Europe has no real choice at the moment, Le Figaro notes:

“To respond to the demands for security and to reduce the pressure of migration, European leaders have no other option than to work with the HTS, an Islamist group that has announced an agenda for Syria and its break with global jihad. This is not ideal, that much is certain, but still better than chaos. If Abu Muhammad al-Julani fails to 'hold' the country, we can be sure that the flow of refugees and the threat of attacks will head back towards Europe. Realistically, we have no alternative but to give him a chance.”

In.gr (GR) /

Providing help is the first step

Even those who want fewer Syrians in Europe should first work to ensure stability in Syria, In argues:

“The international community should help to bring about a smooth political transition that ensures democratic processes, guarantees for civil rights and, of course, a contribution to the reconstruction of the country. ... In doing so, it should always be guided by the will of the people, not by the calculations that have turned the country into a geopolitical flashpoint. Let's not forget that if Syria relapses into internal conflict we would experience a new wave of refugees, and this at a time when conditions are perhaps being created for millions of refugees to return to their homes.”

Zeit Online (DE) /

Unkind and out of touch with reality

Those calling for repatriations are behind the times on migration policy, Zeit Online comments indignantly:

“This ageing country is highly dependent on immigration: we are already short of 400,000 workers a year if we want to keep the labour force stable in the long term and thus secure the prosperity of the nation as a whole. Anyone who has nothing else to do but automatically demand that people return to their home country immediately after a political upheaval is not only being unkind towards those who are already here and making their contribution to our society. They are also undermining the goal of making Germany attractive to people from other countries who have not yet arrived. But whom we urgently need.”

Salzburger Nachrichten (AT) /

A unique opportunity

Salzburger Nachrichten sees an opportunity for Syrian refugees to return home – provided they receive sufficient support:

“This success must be built upon: almost six million Syrian refugees are living in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, mostly in appalling conditions. Another two million live in Europe. In Syria itself, almost four million people are classified as internally displaced persons. If billions are made available to the country for reconstruction as part of a major international effort, they could return to their villages and towns in the near future. This opportunity must not be wasted, because it is unlikely that there will be another one.”

Večernji list (HR) /

Decent living conditions required

It would be a mistake to believe that large numbers of Syrian refugees will now return to their country, Večernji list stresses:

“A mass return will only be possible if the fall of Assad's regime also marks the end of the civil war in Syria. And that is far from certain at present. ... The refugees' return will also depend on the nature of the future government, because the Syrians will certainly not return to a country where their rights and freedoms are restricted. What's more, Syria is now a destroyed country lacking the necessary infrastructure for a normal life. Without significant investment in reconstruction, it will be impossible for many Syrians to return, no matter how much they might want to.”

Stuttgarter Zeitung (DE) /

Taking the wind out of the populists' sails

A new chapter could also begin for the European Union, the Stuttgarter Zeitung writes:

“For Europe, this is a new opportunity to make itself heard in the Middle East. ... While the US, as announced by President-elect Donald Trump, wants to further reduce its involvement in Syria, the EU can support the new government in Damascus with money for reconstruction and organise a regulated return of refugees. This could slow down or even stop the rise of right-wing populists. In this case, the Syrian revolution would also change Europe.”