Talks between the US and Iran: a thaw?
Negotiations between the US and Iran on the Iranian nuclear programme took place in Oman on Saturday. Although a meeting between the two delegations was not planned, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff met for a brief conversation in the end and a continuation of the talks has been agreed for this week. Commentators are not too optimistic about the outcome.
A good start given the risks
Iran must be prevented from continuing the production of weapons-grade uranium, Der Standard insists:
“So far the most remarkable thing about the new nuclear talks between the US and Iran is that they're taking place at all. ... Iran's economy has been ruined by sanctions and its people are living on the edge of the precipice. Iran's strategic network in the region, the so-called 'Axis of Resistance', has been destroyed, and its military systems were severely weakened by the Israeli attack in October. And now the US president is threatening war if there's no new nuclear deal. This US threat was apparently absent on Saturday: Steve Witkoff played the role of 'good cop'. ... The top priority now is indeed to stop Iran's buildup of almost weapons-grade uranium.”
Decisive dialogue for the Middle East
Corriere della Sera voices hope:
“One can't be optimistic at such a complex moment, but the United States and Iran have at least spoken to each other, albeit not directly but through the mediation of the Foreign Minister of Oman, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. ... It almost goes without saying that this dialogue, which has only just begun, could be a decisive element for a different future, at least (but not only) in the powder keg that is the Middle East. An essential prerequisite is to convince Ayatollah Khamenei to take some important steps backwards and at the same time admit the weakness of his dangerous regime, which has recently suffered many defeats.”
No alternative for Tehran
Iran has its back to the wall, taz stresses:
“Trump is relying on economic carrots and military sticks. He wants Iran to become a 'happy country'. ... But he has made it clear that Iran will be 'in great danger' if the negotiations fail. The US has already stationed more B-2 bombers in the Indian Ocean; a second aircraft carrier group has been deployed in the Middle East. ... A second round of talks between Iran and the US is to follow this week. And the fact that Iran is sitting at the negotiating table shows its weakness. Khamenei knows that the future of his regime depends on the outcome of these talks.”
Trump's last chance to present a success
Iran is in a favourable starting position, Israeli journalist Sergei Auslender writes in a Telegram post republished by Echo:
“The Iranians are not fools, and immediately understood Trump's main problem: he needs to have at least something to show for his 100 days as president. A ceasefire in Ukraine? Nope. The return of the hostages from Gaza and the end of the war there? Nope. The trade war? There's no telling where that's going, so nothing there either. That leaves Iran. That's why, if the Wall Street Journal is to be believed, the Iranians rolled out a whole bunch of conditions on the negotiating table in Oman, with the word 'immediately' being the first to catch the eye. ... We can only hope that the Iranians overplay their hand, Trump flies into a rage, and then it's clear what will happen.”
Risk of failure remains high
Middle East expert Ihor Semyvolos is under no illusions in a Facebook post taken over by Espreso:
“The two sides will likely reach a limited agreement: Iran will agree to temporary nuclear restrictions, and the US to a partial easing of sanctions. ... The agreement will nevertheless remain fragile due to mistrust between the two parties and pressure from Israel and Saudi Arabia, which will consider it insufficient. ... The risk of failure will remain high, especially if Israel or Iran resort to provocations. An all-out war is unlikely, but isolated or asymmetric attacks could make further dialogue more difficult.”