Parliamentary elections: all eyes on Italy

The leftist journalist Jakub Majmurek warns in Gazeta Wyborcza that Italy's populists represent a serious threat for Europe:

“Although the Movimento 5 Stelle and the Lega Nord haven't expressed their demand for a referendum [on exiting the Eurozone] in recent months, it could resurface any time now - namely if the economic situation in Italy worsens. This is why an Italian parliament comprising a strong front of populists is a ticking time bomb for all Europe - because a Eurozone without Italy makes no sense.”

The President of the EU Parliament Antonio Tajani said on Thursday evening that he would be willing to become Italy's next prime minister if his party, Berlusconi's Forza Italia, wins the election. Diário de Noticias sees this as good news:

“Having Tajani as its prime ministerial candidate will enhance the camp's credibility both internally and externally. The opposite is the case with Matteo Salvini of the Lega Nord, who has severely annoyed some of the 28 EU member states with his anti-migration and anti-refugee policies. ... Italy's future as the fourth-largest economy in the EU (and third-largest after Brexit) is crucial for the future of the EU, and a stable solution would be preferable. Even if it means a grand coalition between Berlusconi and Renzi.”

Commenting in Contributors political scientist Tana Foarfa doesn't believe a victory for the populists is already a done thing:

“Italy's voters are always good for a surprise. It's possible that we'll see them turning their backs on the Eurosceptical trend, that they'll decide to punish movements like the Lega Nord (which was always against the EU and allied with Marine Le Pen in the EU Parliament) or Movimento 5 Stelle (which has demanded that Italy exit the Eurozone) after their most recent change of discourse. Even the eternal Berlusconi, a politician whom many Italians rabidly hate while others vote for him time and again, is no guarantee for the success of his party [Forza Italia]. The dice haven't stopped rolling yet.”

This country that is harbouring so many refugees deserves Europe's solidarity, La Croix argues:

“As always with Italy, the worst-case scenario may not materialise. Political life in this country is so complex and unpredictable that next week the head of the current centre-left government could still be in power. In that case Italy's European partners will heave a big sigh of relief. But they would be very wrong to leave it at that. Because Italy needs the solidarity of the rest of the European Union to recover the energy and joviality we know and love.”

In Italy people still know how to forgive, author and columnist Hugo Camps writes in De Morgen, commenting on Silvio Berlusconi's political comeback:

“His convictions in a series of trials are no longer talked about. His 'bunga bunga' parties with young prostitutes haven't hurt his status as his country's saviour. On the contrary, the Italian testosterone syndicate was insanely proud of the big womaniser's virile lust for adventure. ... In no other European state has the political class systematically allowed its country's culture, industry, products, fashion and design to deteriorate to such an extent. The banks are as crooked as the leaning Tower of Pisa. ... And now they want to put an 81-year-old, corrupt buffoon back in charge? The madness continues.”

Daily Sabah explains why in these elections Berlusconi would be the lesser evil:

“The two other parties that are giving Berlusconi a run for his money are essentially bad cop and worse cop. The first is the Five Star Movement led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio. While on paper the party had started as an anti-corruption movement founded by a comedian and felon convicted of manslaughter - and thus unable to run in the elections - it has turned into Italy's version of Trumpism. ... The worse cop to the Five Star Movement's bad cop is the North League led by Matteo Salvini. ... He is as close to a modern fascist as Italy has seen since Mussolini. ... Will fascism return to Italy on Sunday? Probably not, but it appears that fascists will undoubtedly have a seat at the table.”

The election campaign is diverting attention from the country's real problems, La Vanguardia sighs:

“In a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 130 percent and a fragile bank situation, the citizens expected the campaign to focus on proposing solutions to the main problems. Instead, however, the leading topics have been immigration - thanks to the populism driving several of the parties in question - and a barrage of spectacular and economically unrealistic promises and proposals aimed at attracting the 30 percent of voters who according to the polls are still undecided.”

The fears at the prospect of an unclear majority after the election are exaggerated, Die Presse believes:

“The situation has often been similar to the present one in the past (most recently in 2013) and creative solutions are available to deal with it: a transitional government is formed, pacts with arch-enemies are made or a party tries to attract defectors. When things really get critical - as was the case before the country almost went bankrupt in 2011 - technocratic governments generally take charge and resolve the crisis with emergency measures. Italy will land on its feet this time too, although things will perhaps get turbulent and loud beforehand. In the EU's capitals people may smile with relief at this Italian-style stable instability, at this curious patient that is so good at balancing on the edge of the abyss. For young Italians, however, the spectacle is less picturesque. Many are turning their backs on their home country because it seems beyond repair.”

The historian and leftist green politician Rui Tavares is less optimistic in Público newspaper:

“The Italian election law favours coalitions. And that's why the left parties' refusal to consolidate their votes effectively means bringing Berlusconi to power. Or even worse: Berlusconi's allies. A few years ago the international community would have followed this election with the anxious interest of those who see it as decisive for Europe's future. Today, however, it is observing the election with the morbid interest of those watching a country going around in circles. But history never repeats itself in exactly the same way. One time it's a tragedy, the next time a farce, as the Hegelians like to say. In Italy it could be vice versa: thanks to Berlusconi it has already had the farce. What remains is the tragedy.”

NRC Handelsblad also examines the Silvio Berlusconi phenomenon:

“Many voters are angry: with the faltering economy, the political class and the large number of migrants. This is reflected in support for radical alternatives. ... Already at the start of the month Berlusconi travelled to Brussels bearing the message that in view of the dwindling support for the ruling Partito Democratico he represents the only guarantee against political experiments. ... A paradox. The man who was regarded as the very prototype of the populist back in 1994 now wants to act as a protective wall against these populists.”

The Movimento 5 Stelle sent the president a list of its shadow cabinet members on Tuesday. A little unusual, La Repubblica comments mockingly, but the move is aimed at bringing the party closer to the political establishment:

“The movement wants to make it clear that it is no longer the anti-system party originally conceived by Grillo and Casaleggio Senior. Now it is something different, or at least it wants to be - even if precisely what it is remains unclear. ... At any rate the desire to be accepted as part of the political institutional system which it once promised to discard like a tin of sardines is obvious. The revolution, if it ever began, is now over.”