Wilders' victory: where is Europe heading?
Following the victory of the right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his PVV party, it is not yet clear who will form the next Dutch government. The former right-wing liberal governing party VVD and the centrist NSC have already rejected proposals to enter a governing coalition with him. Europe's press sees the success of the right-wing populist as a general trend and discusses the causes and consequences.
Threat of isolation
A Prime Minister Wilders would leave the Netherlands on the sidelines internationally, warns NRC columnist Luuk van Middelaar:
“No European head of government wants to be seen with the well-known Islam critic, troublemaker and would-be Koran-banner Geert W. ... The door of the White House would also remain closed to him under Biden. This would mean a break in the political dialogue with Berlin, Paris and other capitals. Harmful, because more and more European and international decisions are being made at the level of the political leaders. A carefully built bond of trust with key counterparts such as Merkel and Macron made Mark Rutte an effective advocate for the Netherlands in the European Council. ... Wilders would sit on the sidelines.”
Complex causes
The rise of the far right cannot be attributed to migration alone, says Sega:
“From Austria and Slovakia to Finland and Sweden, the populist-nationalist far right has become part of political life in Europe. ... However, it would be misleading to attribute this drift to the right and the accompanying anti-establishment sentiment to a single cause. The crisis of the high cost of living, the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, the weakening of the economy as a result of the pandemic and the problems of overburdened public services are all contributing to the widespread dissatisfaction.”
Less we, more me
El País analyses the trend on a socio-psychological level:
“Brexit, Trump, Bolsonaro, Meloni, Milei and Wilders all stand for a shrinking of the 'we'. ... It doesn't seem at all unlikely that the next European Parliament will be less pro-European. ... The phenomenon is also meta-political. The 'we' is shrinking with the weakening of the trade unions and the Church and the screens that make us more solitary, hypnotising us with selfish lifestyles.”
The big loser is Ukraine
The Ukrainian people will suffer the most from the changes, author Edward Lucas fears in Alfa:
“Life will go on much as usual in the Netherlands, just as it has in other countries like Denmark, Sweden, and Italy where populist parties have gained a measure of political power. The real price will be paid in Ukraine, which is losing the external support it needs to defeat Russia. European unity, surprisingly strong since the full-scale invasion of 2022, is now fraying.”
A step-by-step shift to the right
De Volkskrant columnist Ibtihal Jadib warns of a habituation effect:
“That's how it works: you get scared, panic for a moment, but then you look around and realise with relief that everything still looks the same. Life can go on. And so we shift a little further, then a little further again and then, why not, a little further again, until one day the PVV no longer looks like a constitutional threat. What happened to the rule of law in Poland and Hungary is not relevant for us here.”
Immigration safeguards our quality of life
Europe's right-wing populists have only one joint and rather weak argument, says Telegram:
“The common denominator of the European right can only be the hatred of migrants, everything else is questionable and very fluid, from advocating leaving the EU to the relationship with Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine. ... In addition, there were 23.8 million citizens (5.3 percent) living in the EU in 2021 who were not citizens of any EU member state. In that year, 2.3 million immigrants moved to the EU and 1.4 million EU citizens moved from one member state to another. ... This immigration is the key not only to economic progress, but also to maintaining the existing standard of living and quality of life of the citizens of the European Union.”
Cheap promises instead of strong leadership
Belgium should keep a close eye on developments in the Netherlands, warns columnist Marc Reynebeau in De Standaard:
“Just as populists only want to please the public with cheap promises, traditional politicians missed the chance to inspire voters with carefully calibrated leadership for a political project. They confined themselves to swimming with the tide and imitating populist slogans. They failed to take seriously voters who are concerned about social inequality or about inadequate, still heavily bureaucratic public services in the care, housing and public transport sectors.”
Facing the witching hour
The victory of the right-wing populists in the Netherlands weighs particularly heavily, the Tages-Anzeiger writes in concern:
“The zeitgeist is shifting to the right. ... Just how right-wing we saw this week in Holland, where the Islam critic and Ukraine-sceptic Geert Wilders achieved nothing short of a world-shaking result in the parliamentary elections. ... World-shaking because Holland is not Hungary or Poland, nor Argentina or Trump's America, but Holland - a western, supposedly tolerant, and above all EU-European country. ... If the scary right can win in such a country, if that can happen in Holland, then we are facing the witching hour.”
European values in danger
The situation in Brussels is becoming very shaky indeed, says Naftemporiki:
“The Europe-wide shift to the right will undoubtedly have an impact on the European elections, from which a different parliament will emerge. And the balance of power in the new parliament will determine the composition of the Commission. ... The question that is already being asked with concern in Brussels is whether the traditional coexistence of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, which also determines the composition of the European Commission, will give way to another partnership - between the centre-right and the far right. A shift that would potentially lead to the undermining of environmental policy, EU enlargement, immigration and, of course, European freedoms and values.”
Populists not good at staying in power
The trend speaks against Wilders' success, Le Figaro is sure:
“Despite Trump's defeat, Boris Johnson's expulsion and the PiS's failure in Poland, Geert Wilders' victory proves once again that the wave of populism fuelled by a dual economic and migration crisis is not abating and is becoming part of a permanent reshaping of the political landscape. ... However, the transition from electoral populism to government populism remains a complex equation: with the exception of Viktor Orbán, populists have so far failed when it comes to governing in the long term. ... The future of Geert Wilders depends on his ability to form a government and a majority that reaches beyond his voter base but does not betray it.”
The EU will withstand attacks
The EU's institutions are capable of withstanding pressure from populists, writes blogger and journalist Yuri Bohdanov in a Telegram post published by Espreso:
“The European system is not based on personalities or emotions, but on institutions and procedures. These are sometimes slow and very cautious due to internal security precautions, but they are stable and have proven their worth. So yes, Xi, Putin and other populists with authoritarian tendencies (Orbán, Trump, Wilders, Fico, the PiS) may attack the institutions of the EU. But it is not very likely that they will succeed in breaking them. Although they will make everyone nervous. In fact, they are already doing so.”
Reform rather than exit
Many EU-sceptical or even anti-EU parties such as the PVV no longer want to leave the EU, Telegram notes:
“The right also wants a reform of the European Union - a 'new Europe' - but not necessarily the kind that is being discussed among the governments of the member states. They want a looser confederation of states, the primacy of national law over that of the EU, complete control over migration and asylum, the devolution of power from Brussels to the nation states. ... So it is no longer a question of leaving the EU, but of transforming it into an organisation based on completely different principles than those that have prevailed so far. Wilders could be an important ally in this process.”