2024 - a good year for democracy?
In 2024, almost half of the world's population was asked to go to the polls: a real super election year. What lessons can be learned from the results? And what are the chances of a successful democratic new beginning in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime? Commentators take stock.
Centrists have lost out
Extreme forces gained the upper hand this year, La Stampa frets:
“Who knows if some future historian will remember 2024 as a crucial year for the fate of the planet. ... We need only think of the number of elections that took place. Among the most important were those in France, Austria, Belgium, the US and Japan, as well as the renewal of the European Parliament. In most of them, the more radical parties on both the right and left either prevailed or at least saw a significant increase in their popularity. The rise of the AfD and BSWin the German states, the successes of Le Pen and Mélenchon in France and the triumph of Donald Trump in the US are just a few of the most striking examples.”
The system has proven its resilience
Free elections in a number of important states have led to positive change, The Economist counters:
“In India, in a raucous festival of democracy, the increasingly illiberal government of Narendra Modi had expected to enhance its dominance. Voters had other ideas. ... In South Africa, the African National Congress lost its majority. Instead of rejecting the result - as many liberation movements have - it chose to govern with the reform-minded Democratic Alliance. In America the year began amid warnings of election violence. Donald Trump's clear victory meant America escaped that fate. That is a low bar, but Americans may now not face such perilous circumstances for many years.”
People's representatives losing trust
More and more people are dissatisfied with the system, Jutarnji list notes:
“In recent years global studies have clearly shown how frustrated citizens are with the functioning of representative democracy. They do not feel connected to their leaders and institutions, and majorities in many nations believe that elected officials are not interested in the opinions of ordinary people. Many say there is no political party that properly represents their views, and that 'people like you and me' have little or no influence over politics in their country. Such frustration with the political class has opened up opportunities for right-wing populists and other challengers of the status quo.”
Migrants as scapegoats
Donald Trump's election victory exemplifies a trend in voter behaviour, analyses De Morgen:
“Anger over a subjectively perceived decline in purchasing power together with rejection of illegal migration propelled Trump to victory. ... For voters, migration offers an explanation for everything that goes wrong or changes in society: inflation, unemployment, but also social developments and diversity. Driven by the populists, 'the' migrant becomes the ideal scapegoat and 'enemy of the people'. We are seeing this here too.”
Targeted by Russia
Contributors assesses the Kremlin's attempts to exert its influence in Moldova, Georgia and Romania:
“Russia pursues its goals in Eastern Europe through a combination of tactics: it invades territories and installs puppet regimes, and it uses local politicians to hijack democratic processes and destabilise governance. It stirs up trouble during elections and paralyses institutions. In this way Moscow seeks to hijack these democracies and to distract Western allies from defending Ukraine. Fending off attempts to influence elections and other attacks will be crucial not only for the stability of the Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Romania, but also for the security architecture of Europe as a whole.”
Too early to judge on Syria
Dictatorship is not automatically followed by democracy, the Kleine Zeitung points out:
“According to Syria's de facto ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa - until recently known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani - it could be four years before new elections are held. And they could be a farce. Expectations that the country will move towards a stable, better future should therefore not be too high. It also remains to be seen what will come of Sharaa's announcement that his Islamist militia group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is on the UN's list of terrorist organisations, will be disbanded as part of a 'national dialogue'. Syria is a country in perpetual limbo. Sharaa's invocation of national unity and appeal to all religious groups and ethnicities is a cleverly chosen tactic. For the oppressed people, however, it is about having prospects worth living for.”
The rule of law is key
Looking to Syria after the end of the Assad regime, La Croix sees a key element for a successful future:
“In managing the transition from one regime to another, the new government must begin to work towards reconciliation and unity. ... In this process, the fate of the Alawite minority and that of Christians will be watched very closely by international observers. To achieve reconciliation, the introduction of a genuine justice system to deal with the perpetrators of the crimes committed in recent years is indispensable, starting with the former dictator who has fled to Russia. But this system must not plunge the country into a vicious circle of retaliation.”