Thaw in US-Russia relations?
At a meeting of their foreign ministers in the Saudi capital Riyadh, the US and Russia have agreed on initial steps in the direction of a rapprochement, with the resumption of ambassadorial relations and preparations for a summit meeting between presidents Trump and Putin. Negotiators are to seek ways to end to the war in Ukraine and increase economic cooperation. Europe's press analyses the signals.
Europe must send louder warnings
Europe can still try to influence the situation, writes Der Spiegel:
“The Europeans must not leave public discourse on this issue to Trump and his aides alone, even if the US president gives a press conference every day. It's important to prevent the Trump camp's most absurd ideas from gaining traction, such as the demand for extensive Ukrainian reparations payments to the US. Or the idea that elections should be held in Ukraine before a peace settlement has been reached. ... Many in the US also see Putin as a scoundrel whose tricks the US president should not fall victim to. The Europeans now have the important, perhaps decisive, task of reminding the Americans of this again and again - as loudly as they can.”
An intolerable diplomatic foray
Russia is in a strong negotiating position, laments Turun Sanomat:
“Trump is serious about securing peace. He doesn't seem to care what price Ukraine and Europe will have to pay for it. ... Europe must not allow Russia to dictate to sovereign states the terms of their security solutions. There is no country in Europe that is considering attacking Russia. But Russia, driven by its nostalgic and unrealistic ambitions to regain superpower status, wants to expand its sphere of influence.”
A foreseeable turn of events
Sme is unsurprised by the US's negotiating style:
“Why did anyone believe that a man who seriously wants to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America and gain control of Greenland would not start negotiations to end the war without the presence of invaded Ukraine? ... After Trump's victory in the presidential election and his first comments about Putin, we were inundated with the platitudes about the fallout for Ukraine not being as bad as it might seem. That Trump would not submit to Putin and that we could rely on his ego alone in the case of Ukraine. Today, Trump and Putin are joining forces to plunder Europe.”
Rare earths and Russian oil beckon
Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian State Investment Fund, announced in Riyadh that US oil companies could return to Russia and start projects in the Arctic. In a Telegram post picked up by Echo, journalist Dmitry Kolesev fears the US is intent on snapping up natural resources from both sides in the war:
“Amazing! For 15 years we were told that in the 1990s we had practically given away all our natural resources to foreigners. ... Now it turns out that Putin kindly saved them so that he could offer them to the Americans at the right moment. Imagine the US securing both favourable conditions in the Russian oil sector and Ukrainian natural resources on predatory terms. ... In that case the winner in this war will be neither Russia nor Ukraine, but the US.”
Moscow weak despite the bluster
Jyllands-Posten comments:
“Russia's next goal will be to organise a summit where Putin can continue his efforts to persuade Trump to reorganise European security policy. The Kremlin is also hoping to lure the American to Moscow on 9 May for the military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, which China's Xi Jinping is also expected to attend. This would be the crowning glory for Putin, who wants to revive the spirit of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union - even though modern Russia is a very different and much weaker player. For despite all the Russian bluster the war in Ukraine has in many ways highlighted the weakness of Putin's project.”
Keep calm and carry on
Die Presse does not expect a quick fix:
“As always with Trump, the motto here is: Keep calm and wait and see. In the US's first statement after the Riyadh meeting there was suddenly talk about any solution having to be acceptable to both Ukraine and Europe, and that further negotiations would be necessary. That certainly doesn't sound like there will be a quick deal.”
So much for common interests
The US and Russia are far from seeing eye to eye, France Inter concurs:
“Trump wants a quick peace. Putin, on the other hand, is in no hurry, even if his country's economy is showing signs of fatigue. ... His army is in a position of strength on the ground and the war is the driving force of his regime. The US president can't afford to grant Putin a major diplomatic victory and be left looking weaker than the Russian leader. He is well aware that Moscow's partners, such as China and Iran, are his adversaries. Strengthening Putin would mean weakening the US administration. For those following the talks in Riyadh from afar, these are reasons to be hopeful.”
Ukraine's red lines
In a Facebook post republished by NV, columnist Ivan Yakovina lists terms that would be unacceptable to Ukraine in any peace agreement:
“The surrender of Ukrainian territory to Russia without a fight; the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the occupied territories; the weakening of the Ukrainian armed forces; the installing of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv; the abandonment of substantial (rather than just on paper) security guarantees for Ukraine. If any of these points appears in the final agreement Ukraine simply will not sign it, because that would be tantamount to a death sentence for the country. The Americans will no doubt threaten to cut off military and financial aid. But such a threat won't work, because the occupation and demise of the state would be even more terrible.”
Europe has itself to blame for being left out
No wonder Europe is not at the negotiating table, says former left-wing MEP Gyula Hegyi in Index:
“Europe's leaders had three years to negotiate with Moscow. ... They didn't. They tried to divert attention from the real situation on the front with an endless barrage of words while they themselves didn't believe in a Ukrainian victory. ... As a result they have lost all their credibility in the eyes of the non-European world (including the new Washington) and have shown themselves to be weak and helpless. ... You'd have to be very cynical to expect now, after the US peace initiative, to participate in talks that didn't take place for three years through your own fault.”
Putin no longer a pariah
Both the image boost and a potential end to the war will come in very handy for Russia's president, notes De Standaard:
“The crucial question is of course whether Putin also wants a just and lasting peace. ... For the time being he doesn't have to do much. The mere fact that Trump wants to meet him is a victory. The American president is bringing Putin out of his pariah status. In his mind the talks are not just about Ukraine ... But Putin also has something to gain from peace. He cannot sustain the war either economically or militarily. And polls also show that the Russians are getting increasingly fed up with the hostilities.”
Friendly relations despite war
Radio Kommersant FM suspects that the Kremlin wants to talk less about settling the war in Ukraine than about relaunching bilateral relations:
“One of the key points is restoring the full functionality of the embassies. There seems to be agreement on this. At least Rubio himself has proposed this as a condition for a normal negotiation process. ... There is the suspicion that the Russian side wants to exclude Ukraine and focus first on restoring good relations with America. And then see what happens. Restoring good relations would probably require the lifting of certain sanctions. At the same time, the issue of disarmament could be addressed: so the Kremlin is proposing to talk about the fate of the world as a whole.”
Zelensky bringing Erdoğan on board
Zelensky's simultaneous visit to Turkey is a clever move, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov comments on Facebook:
“Even if Trump did not invite Zelensky to sit down with the Russian president, the Ukrainian leader will now be an invisible presence thanks to his dialogue with Turkey. No matter what Trump and Putin agree on, they will have to pause and consider: 'Let's see what Zelensky and Erdoğan have decided first'. This goes for peacekeeping troops and rare earths, among other issues. If, for example, the Americans and Russians agree to invite the Brazilians and Chinese as peacekeepers, but Zelensky invites the Turks, there will be a problem. Then they'll also have to come to an agreement with Zelensky.”
Pointless without Europe
Europe's commitment will prevent Ukraine's position from being ignored in a deal between the US and Russia, says Visão optimistically:
“Zelensky may have temporarily lost an important ally, but he has gained a strong Europe that wants to see Kyiv in the EU and is prepared to provide defence and security guarantees. The Russians and Americans can talk as much as they like in Riyadh, but they will be no more than extras who have lost control over war and peace.”