Elections in Austria: will the FPÖ win?
Austria elects a new National Council on Sunday. According to the polls, the right-wing populist FPÖ could emerge as the strongest force and push the conservative ÖVP into second place. Commentators examine the potential repercussions for the formation of a new government and the future of the country.
Issues that resonate with the public
Hospodářské noviny explains the FPÖ's popularity as follows:
“Firstly, the Covid pandemic gave it a boost because it was able to exploit the citizens' frustration with government measures. Then there was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which allowed it to cast itself in the role of 'peacemaker'. Thirdly, on its core issue of migration, the party takes a very restrictive stance: not only should Austria reject all new asylum applications but it should also send numerous foreigners back to their country of origin as quickly as possible. What's more, it wants only Austrians to be eligible for social benefits. The country is to be turned into a 'fortress'. At the European level, incidentally, Andrej Babiš's Ano party and Viktor Orbán's Fidesz have been cooperating with the FPÖ since the summer.”
Lots of overlap between parties on the right
Der Standard sees a conservative-right-wing populist government as realistic:
“There are a good deal of overlaps between the ÖVP and the FPÖ. This goes for economic policy but even more so for social policy. The FPÖ wants to put critical media, artists and intellectuals in chains. The ÖVP wants to imprison investigative journalists, in line with the latest proposed legislation. On migration policy, the ÖVP advocates a 'Kickl-light' policy, and on environmental policy both the ÖVP and the FPÖ are 100-percent pro-car parties. ... Both consider parades in traditional costume and brass bands to be their country's true culture. Neither wants to be told what to do by Brussels.”
Goebbels mannerisms put off potential partners
In Die Presse, cultural scientist Christoph Landerer sees a governing coalition between the FPÖ and the ÖVP as unlikely:
“Kickl has simultaneously perfected and radicalised the liberal provocation strategy. For events where he addresses his supporters and party members, he has developed a style of speech which many political observers say reminds them of Goebbels. His vocalisation and gestures are rehearsed. In the television studio, Kickl adopts a different tone. This does not recommend him as a candidate for government co-operation; the FPÖ is making it as difficult as possible for the ÖVP to form a coalition with it.”
Find our way back to a shared truth
Kurier finds the rifts in Austrian society worrying:
“The centrifugal forces, the fractures, seem to have reached a critical point - brutally amplified on the Internet - for which one can only use a democratic-political alarm word: people are irreconcilably opposed in their truths. That is why democracy across the globe is perhaps more vibrant now than it has been in a long time – and at the same time in acute danger. ... The most important challenge in the coming years will be to find our way back to a shared truth.”
Extreme weather weakens extremists
The floods have shown voters how important environmental policy can be, Tygodnik Powszechny suspects:
“Many observers believe that the mood in Austria may have changed following the extreme weather conditions. And that many Austrians may now hesitate to vote for [FPÖ leader Herbert] Kickl, who has criticised the Christian Democrat-Green government's environmental policy projects and insulted his opponents by talking about 'climate communism' in discussions about climate change. Especially now that it is gradually becoming clear that it was the renaturation measures along the rivers of Lower Austria that prevented even worse flooding in the region.”
Unstable majorities on the cards
Diena evaluates the possibility of a centre-right coalition between the FPÖ and ÖVP:
“No other tandem will have a majority in parliament. But this two-party alliance is unlikely. Both parties may agree on domestic issues, but as far as foreign policy goes their views differ fundamentally. Moreover, the very idea that FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl could become prime minister is obviously terrifying for the politicians of the established parties - and for Europe as a whole. So a three-way coalition is highly likely. ... Another factor is that such a coalition would only make the traditional established parties even less attractive in the eyes of voters.”