Syria: how to deal with the new leadership?
The Assad regime is history, but the HTS militia that overthrew it is an Islamist group that, although it promises to uphold the rule of law, is classified as a terrorist organisation by many Western states. This week the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, met with the new rulers in Damascus and called for the lifting of sanctions against Syria and the HTS. Europe's press is divided.
Help instead of penalties
The Frankfurter Rundschau knows what the EU should and should not do:
“Of course it would be absurd for the EU to maintain its sanctions against a destroyed Syria now that the Assad regime has fallen. ... It would also be helpful if those responsible in the EU capitals were to agree on the goals of their future Syria policy. Some of them should focus less on the question of how to send those who have fled to Europe back to their country of origin as quickly as possible and more on ensuring that the civil war-torn country becomes a place where people can live decent lives again so that the refugees return voluntarily.”
Islamists and democracy incompatible
The new HTS rulers promise democracy and respect for human rights in Syria, but T24 has doubts as to whether they keep their word:
“Leaving aside 'extreme examples' such as Afghanistan and Iran, we must not forget that HTS emerged from Al Qaeda and draws its strength from a similar ideology, albeit with different political goals. On the other hand, we in Turkey know from our own experience that where a political movement with an Islamist ideology is in power, even the exercise of basic human rights can lead to problems. For 22 years we have tested this and found that democracy is incompatible with Islamist rule.”
Too many players involved
Some countries in the region could view a successful Syria as a threat to their own future, writes Sabah:
“Beyond political concerns, some countries will see an unstable and weak Syria as more favourable to their interests. ... Considering that this civil war has been going on for 13 years, that regional and non-regional players are involved in it, and that it is difficult to generalise about the future prospects of different religious and ethnic groups, it will be difficult to establish a democratic system and stable structure overnight.”
Work with Erdoğan, but stay alert
Turkey has more than just a say in the reorganisation of Syria, writes the Kleine Zeitung:
“The Europeans, who have already fought out many little battles with Erdoğan, may not like this, but in practice realpolitik can't take much account of this. From this perspective, it is right and important that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hurried to Ankara to sound out the situation in talks with Erdoğan. However, it is also important that the Europeans do not give in to Turkey's new power and look the other way when it comes to the fate of the Kurds: Erdoğan's fear of the emergence of a Kurdish autonomous region in Syria could quickly lead to a bloody war with many civilian casualties.”
Maximum support, please
For The Irish Times there can only be one approach, both out of a sense of responsibility and to protect Europe's interests:
“The downfall of Syria's Assad regime is a heartening assertion of freedoms. ... The country deserves maximum international support as it confronts the mammoth tasks of establishing a new political and legal order, stabilising its regions, organising humanitarian aid and beginning reconstruction. ... The EU and its members have a genuine diplomatic responsibility here. Collectively, they stand to become major beneficiaries of the stability flowing from a peaceful, thriving and reconstructed Syria, or losers if it reverts to a chaotic state stoked by regional powers.”
Be careful about choice of partner
Phileleftheros writes about militia leader al-Julani:
“Now he is the West's chosen one and the ten million dollar bounty on his head will be removed. 'Allahu Akbar' no longer sounds frightening but is like a prayer (they will tell us). ... And the West expects him to democratise a devastated Syria. Devastated by the previous regime, let's not forget. But this is not a Hollywood film in which the roles are clearly divided into good and evil and the viewer sides with the good guys and is relieved when they win in the end. ... In some stories, there are no good guys.”
One step at a time
The EU states are taking a constructive approach guided by cautious optimism, La Stampa concludes:
“For all of them, Syria's territorial integrity is a key element to ensure stability in the region. A cautious openness towards the new government in Damascus is being coupled with a list of conditions: respect for the rights of ethnic and religious minorities, defence of women's rights and the renunciation of personal vendettas. ... Spain has decided to reopen its embassy in Damascus and Germany has appointed a special coordinator to monitor the situation on the ground.”
Don't start proselytising again
The victorious insurgents should not be confronted with too many demands, warns the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
“If [Germany's Foreign Minister Anna] Baerbock makes cooperation contingent on an ideal state that includes women's rights and the protection of minorities, then this has more to do with German demands than with the Syrian reality. Not a single country in the Arab world could fulfil the requirements of Germany's Basic Law; much less can this be expected of an Islamist leadership. Germany must learn that foreign policy is not about proselytising, but primarily about safeguarding interests.”
A rude awakening can't be ruled out
Even the use of chemical weapons in Syria eleven years ago didn't wake us up to the horrors, Le Point admonishes:
“In 2013 Bashar al-Assad demonstrated just how deaf the West is, as his overthrow paradoxically confirms. Does this habitual resignation go so far as to cloud our judgement? We may well wonder, given how successful the campaign launched by al-Julani has been here in selling us the image of 'moderate' Islamists. ... It would be ridiculous to be surprised if it all ends in horror. ... We recall once more the naivety of some commentators when back in 2021 Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban - who were already being described as 'inclusive'. Now women are not even allowed to speak in the street.”
Just as important as Ukraine now
Europe should get involved diplomatically, believes eldiario.es:
“Kaja Kallas, the new High Representative for EU Foreign Policy, quite rightly wants to focus on Ukraine, but the war in Ukraine will not be solved by the EU. And recent developments, including Assad's flight to Moscow, have shown how the crises in the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe are interconnected. Kallas knows this only too well. Stopping Iran's nuclear race and increasing security in the Gulf will not be easy, but there may be more scope for positive action than anticipated. The benefits would be de-escalation in the Middle East, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, building bridges with Trump and containing Russia. ... Europe could play a vital role here.”